Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free


	Troyes		Caen

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.6
	2.1	3.2	3.6
	2.12	3.2	3.91
	2.06	3.28	3.64	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	2.1	3.47	3.68	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.92)	3.26 ↓ (3.55)	3.62 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
45.1%

Draw
28.8%

Caen
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

26.4%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

20.8%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Troyes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Troyes - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Troyes will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Caen will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Troyes: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Lemaitre N. (G) 17. Mendes H. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 6. Monfray A. (C) 14. Boura I. 42. Kante A. 21. Irie C. 8. Diop M. 10. M'Changama Y. 11. Said R. 12. de Preville N.	1. Mandrea A. (G) 25. Sy L. 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 61. Traore B. 28. Lecoeuche Q. 77. Gaucho Debohi D. 20. Lebreton N. 10. Brahimi B. 8. Le Bihan M. 50. Najim I. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
24. Adeline M. 15. Assoumou J. 18. Balde T. 25. Ba P. I. 1. Boucher Z. (G) 32. Detourbet M. 23. Gozzi P.	45. Benrahou Y. 16. Clementia Y. (G) 4. Henry V. 17. Kyeremeh G. 6. M'Vila Y. 14. Rajot L. 29. Thomas R.
Coaches
Dumont S.	Baltazar B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Le Bihan M. 🟨,
28', de Preville N. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, M'Changama Y. ⚽,
51', 2 - 0, Said R. ⚽,
59', Le Bihan M. ↓, Kyeremeh G. ↑,
68', de Preville N. ↓, Adeline M. ↑,
68', Benrahou Y. ↓, M'Vila Y. ↑,
70', 3 - 0, Diop M. ⚽, Adeline M. (A),
75', Sy L. ↓, Henry V. ↑,
75', Traore B. ↓, Thomas R. ↑,
84', Irie C. ↓, Assoumou J. ↑,
85', Gaucho Debohi D. 🟨,
89', Diop M. ↓, Ba P. I. ↑,
89', Said R. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 2 (Relegation) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Troyes won 3.

Recent matches Troyes is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Caen has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Troyes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Troyes will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Troyes: Hamdi M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Troyes: Phliponeau A. (Injury) Tahrat M. (Leg Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Troyes won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:11 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Troyes won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:7 (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
24.01.25	Laval - Troyes	1:0 ✺
20.01.25	Troyes - Annecy	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Troyes - Rennes	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
10.01.25	Rodez - Troyes	2:1 ✺
03.01.25	Amiens - Troyes	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LLWLW
- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
24.01.25	Caen - Guingamp	0:1 ✺
17.01.25	Ajaccio - Caen	2:1 ✺
11.01.25	Caen - Grenoble	0:1 ✺
03.01.25	Caen - Clermont	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Guingamp - Caen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
26.10.24	Caen - Troyes	0:1
27.01.24	Caen - Troyes	0:0
04.11.23	Troyes - Caen	2:1
17.04.21	Troyes - Caen	1:0
12.12.20	Caen - Troyes	0:0
14.02.20	Caen - Troyes	0:1
13.09.19	Troyes - Caen	2:1

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