Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen)

Referee: Scharer S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	CANAL+ Foot
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 3
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN Sports 3, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
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Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	TDM TV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
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Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
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Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 1
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Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
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South-korea	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 9
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Shakhtar Donetsk		Brest

	1	X	2
	2.86	3.4	2.62
				Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.52)	3.35 ↓ (3.44)	2.56 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhtar Donetsk
34.3%

Draw
28.5%

Brest
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

27.9%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

29.7%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brest, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.7%	23.1%	49.2%

Shakhtar Donetsk - Brest Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 17 - 27.4%). Brest will win (votes: 30 - 48.4%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 24.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 36% – 60.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 16. Azarovi I. 8. Kryskiv D. 38. Pedrinho 30. Marlon Gomes 10. Sudakov G. 37. Kevin 7. Eguinaldo	40. Bizot M. (G) 7. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 3. Ndiaye A. 26. Pereira Lage M. 45. Camara M. 6. Fernandes E. 8. Magnetti H. 9. Doumbia K. 14. Balde M. 19. Ajorque L.
Substitutes
21. Bondarenko A. 74. Faryna M. 72. Fesyun K. (G) 20. Glushchenko A. 26. Konoplya Y. 29. Nazaryna Y. 39. Newerton 9. Shved M. 6. Stepanenko T. 2. Traore L. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G) 11. Zubkov O.	30. Coudert G. (G) 44. Coulibaly S. 10. Del Castillo R. 21. Faivre R. 50. Jauny N. (G) 20. Lees-Melou P. 34. Salah I. 17. Sima A.
Coaches
Pusic M.	Roy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Kevin ⚽,
22', Ndiaye A. 🟨,
37', 2 - 0, Sudakov G. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Eguinaldo ↓, Traore L. ↑,
60', Ajorque L. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
60', Camara M. ↓, Del Castillo R. ↑,
60', Doumbia K. ↓, Faivre R. ↑,
71', Marlon Gomes ↓, Stepanenko T. ↑,
71', Tobias V. ↓, Konoplya Y. ↑,
71', Balde M. ↓, Salah I. ↑,
77', Stepanenko T. 🟨,
83', Pedrinho ↓, Zubkov O. ↑,
83', Sudakov G. ↓, Bondarenko A. ↑,
85', Fernandes E. ↓, Coulibaly S. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Veltins Arena.

Shakhtar is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Brest is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Brest could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Shakhtar: Henrique P. (Red Card)

There will not play in Brest: Amavi J. (Hamstring Injury) Coulibaly S. (Groin Injury) Haidara M. (Calf Injury) Le Cardinal J. (Yellow Cards) Locko B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Martin J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Faivre R. (Illness) Lees-Melou P. (Calf Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
15.12.24	Polissya Zhytomyr - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.24	Shakhtar Donetsk - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
05.12.24	Shakhtar Donetsk - Vorskla Poltava	3:1 ✺
01.12.24	Shakhtar Donetsk - Rukh Lviv	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	PSV Eindhoven - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWTL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
18.01.25	Rennes - Brest	1:2 ✺
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Brest - Nantes	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.01.25	Brest - Lyon	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Angers - Brest	2:0 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	La Roche VF - Brest	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WWWLW

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