Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 6
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Sports 1 MAX, Digiturk
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, ON Sport, VTVcab
International	OneFootball TV


	Troyes		Lens

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.75	Watch
	4.10	3.80	1.82
	4.2	3.75	1.8	Watch
	4.39	3.88	1.85
	3.97	3.91	1.84	Watch
	4.35	3.85	1.82
	4.64	3.96	1.74	Watch
	4.4	4	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.3 ↑ (3.87)	3.88 ↓ (3.98)	1.8 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
22.2%

Draw
24.6%

Lens
53.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.4%

23.7%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

23.6%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.5%	9.7%	83.9%

Troyes - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: Lens will win (26 of 31 users predict this - 83.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.92% – 96.82%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Beach P. (G) 2. Maronnier L. 6. Monfray A. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 5. Gozzi P. 8. Diop M. 29. Karim D. 10. Ifnaoui M. 17. Mille A. 23. Nkada T. 20. Ripart R.	40. Risser R. (G) 32. Antonio K. 25. Ganiou I. 20. Todibo J. 2. Aguilar R. 8. Titraoui Y. 5. Bulatovic A. 22. Skoras M. 10. Thauvin F. (C) 7. Sotoca F. 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
37. Batola C. 7. Diawara K. 31. Donkor N. 11. Gomis I. 40. Konate H. (G) 9. Le Douaron J. 26. Phliponeau A. 22. Picard H. 34. Simakha L.	23. Abdulhamid S. 6. Baidoo S. 27. Cuisance M. 16. Gorgelin M. (G) 21. Haidara A. 9. Hazard T. 29. Ivanovic F. 28. Kadile J. 38. Soares M.
Coaches
Dumont S.	Cahuzac Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Monfray A. (Own goal),
26', 1 - 1, Nkada T. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 2, Edouard O. ⚽, Thauvin F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 1 - 3, Aguilar R. ⚽, Thauvin F. (A),
60', Todibo J. ↓, Baidoo S. ↑,
60', Nkada T. ↓, Diawara K. ↑,
64', Gozzi P. ↓, Donkor N. ↑,
67', Thauvin F. ↓, Soares M. ↑,
67', Edouard O. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
67', Titraoui Y. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
72', Aguilar R. ↓, Abdulhamid S. ↑,
76', Diaz Jr. M. 🟨,
76', Ripart R. 🟨,
77', Baidoo S. 🟨,
79', Diop M. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
79', Maronnier L. ↓, Gomis I. ↑,
82', Haidara A. 🟨,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 17th in the Relegation - Ligue 2 and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Troyes (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lens has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Troyes could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Lens carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Troyes: Kone Y. (Knee Injury) Ouzenadji A. (Knee Injury) Titi Y. (Leg Injury).

Confirmed absences for Lens: Chavez J. (Thigh Injury) Gradit J. (Muscle Injury) Nawrocki M. (Knee Injury) Sima A. (Muscle Injury) Udol M. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Troyes: Boura I. (Hip Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Troyes has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:24 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Troyes against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:14 goals (averaging 1.4:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Lens	7	3	1	3	14:11	3	10
17	Troyes	7	1	1	5	5:16	-11	4

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 1.28% Troyes: 0.14%

Last Results with these Odds

Troyes - the odds 3.87 are the expected chance of winning is 24.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Lens - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.88%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
11.10.26	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Angers - Troyes	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lille - Troyes	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Troyes - Strasbourg	2:6 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLLW
- RC Lens
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	Lens - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
09.10.26	Lens - Lyon	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Monaco - Lens	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Le Mans - Lens	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Slavia Prague - Lens	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
04.02.26	Troyes - Lens	2:4
French Ligue 1
28.01.23	Troyes - Lens	1:1
09.09.22	Lens - Troyes	1:0
14.05.22	Troyes - Lens	1:3
05.11.21	Lens - Troyes	4:0
French Ligue 2
04.02.20	Lens - Troyes	1:0
24.08.19	Troyes - Lens	2:0

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