Match Info

K League 1 - Round 7

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Sungui Arena Park (Incheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play, JTBC Golf&Sports
Switzerland	LAOLA1


	Incheon United		Ulsan HD

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.52
	2.82	3.25	2.7
	2.67	3.23	2.63	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.86	3.36	2.47	Watch
	2.65	3	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.5)	3.18 ↑ (3.14)	2.53 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Incheon United
34.2%

Draw
29.1%

Ulsan HD
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.7%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.5%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	57.1%	42.9%

Incheon United - Ulsan HD Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ulsan will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ulsan (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulsan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 2. Ibiza 39. Kim Myung-soon 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 32. Lee Ju-Yong 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 9. Mugosa S. 7. Oh H. 20. Park Kyung-sub 77. Park Seung-Ho 15. Seo Jae-Min	21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 6. Bojanic D. 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 96. Choi Seok-Hyun 15. Jung Seung-Hyun (C) 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 8. Lee H. 28. Lee Jae-Ik 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 99. Yago Cariello
Substitutes
13. Choi Seung-gu 99. Ferrier M. 11. Gerso 23. Jeong Chi-In 4. Kim Gun-Hee 72. Lee Chung-Yong 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 8. Undabarrena I. 27. Yeo Seung-Won	33. Jang Si-Young 20. Jeong Jae-sang 22. Lee Min-Hyuk 9. Marcao 91. Michel B. 13. Ryu Seong-Min (G) 77. Sim Sang-Min 66. Trojak M.
Coaches
Yoon Jong-Hwan	Kim Hyun-seok

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Yago Cariello ⚽, Lee Dong-Gyeong (A),
34', Park Seung-Ho ↓, Lee Chung-Yong ↑,
34', Oh H. ↓, Ferrier M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lee H. ↓, Michel B. ↑,
60', Lee Dong-Ryul ↓, Gerso ↑,
62', Lee Jin-Hyun ↓, Trojak M. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Seo Jae-Min ⚽,
78', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Jang Si-Young ↑,
78', Choi Seok-Hyun ↓, Sim Sang-Min ↑,
82', Michel B. 🟨,
83', Yago Cariello ↓, Marcao ↑,
86', Kim Myung-soon ↓, Yeo Seung-Won ↑,
90+2', Trojak M. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Marcao ⚽, Lee Gyu-Seong (A),
90+8', Mugosa S. 🟨,
90+10', Marcao 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 0.

Incheon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ulsan is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:32. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Incheon won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.8:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42

Last Results with these Odds

Incheon United - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.36%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
05.04.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Anyang - Incheon United	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Incheon United - Daejeon Citizen	1:3 ✺
15.03.26	Pohang Steelers - Incheon United	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLTL
- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
04.04.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Ulsan HD	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Jeju - Ulsan HD	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Bucheon - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Ulsan HD - Gangwon	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean Cup
14.05.25	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	3:0
South Korean K-League 1
22.09.24	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	0:0
South Korean Cup
17.07.24	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	1:0
South Korean K-League 1
29.05.24	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	1:1
17.03.24	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	3:3
24.11.23	Incheon United - Ulsan HD	3:1
08.10.23	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	0:0

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