Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sky Sport 4, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6


	Wolfsburg		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.1	4.5	Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.87	3.71	3.84	Watch
	1.65	3.92	4.84	Watch
	1.75	3.9	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.47)	3.92 ↓ (4.5)	4.46 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
54.8%

Draw
24%

Holstein Kiel
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

20.9%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

22.5%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Wolfsburg's form might have worsened.

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Holstein Kiel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wolfsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Holstein Kiel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	6.2%	0%

Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 2nd Half - Wolfsburg (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Wolfsburg (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Wolfsburg will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Wolfsburg will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Muller M. (G) 26. Kumbedi S. 14. Seelt J. 4. Koulierakis K. 25. Zehnter A. 5. Vini Souza 27. Arnold M. (C) 7. Skov Olsen A. 24. Eriksen C. 9. Amoura M. 17. Pejcinovic D.	1. Weiner T. (G) 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Schwab S. 24. Knudsen M. 47. Tolkin J. 11. Bernhardsson A. (C) 10. Therkelsen J. 20. Kapralik A.
Substitutes
22. Angely M. 11. Daghim A. 8. Dardai B. 31. Gerhardt Y. 21. Maehle J. 10. Majer L. 12. Pervan P. (G) 32. Svanberg M. 39. Wimmer P.	19. Harres P. 6. Ivezic M. 45. Koster L. 21. Krumrey J. (G) 25. Muller M. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 2. Roslyng F. 39. Wagner R.
Coaches
Simonis P.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Zehnter A. 🟨,
18', Komenda M. 🟨,
24', Zec D. 🟨,
29', Seelt J. 🟨,
36', Seelt J. 🟨,
41', Vini Souza 🟨,
41', Muller M. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Bernhardsson A. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Skov Olsen A. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
46', Pejcinovic D. ↓, Wimmer P. ↑,
62', Johansson C. 🟨,
63', Rosenboom L. ↓, Nekic I. ↑,
63', Kapralik A. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
73', Zehnter A. ↓, Maehle J. ↑,
78', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Koster L. ↑,
78', Schwab S. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
85', Amoura M. 🟨,
89', Vini Souza ↓, Dardai B. ↑,
89', Knudsen M. ↓, Ivezic M. ↑,
90+5', Wimmer P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 2.

Wolfsburg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Holstein Kiel has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Wolfsburg is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Hamburger SV - Wolfsburg	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Wolfsburg - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
04.10.25	Augsburg - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLL
- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.25	Holstein Kiel - Bochum	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Elversberg - Holstein Kiel	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.01.25	Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel	2:2
31.08.24	Holstein Kiel - Wolfsburg	0:2
Club Friendly
14.07.21	Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel	0:1
10.10.19	Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel	1:1
German Bundesliga
21.05.18	Holstein Kiel - Wolfsburg	0:1
17.05.18	Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel	3:1

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