Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Berlin		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.35	Watch
	3.05	3.35	2.32	Watch
	3.15	3.49	2.37
	3.11	3.41	2.31	Watch
	3	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.26	3.48	2.29	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.48)	3.39 ↓ (3.62)	2.32 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
30.8%

Draw
28.1%

RB Leipzig
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

26.3%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

25.5%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RB Leipzig might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RB Leipzig could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.7%	12.6%	78.6%

Union Berlin - RB Leipzig Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - RB Leipzig (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - RB Leipzig (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Union Berlin (1.62) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - RB Leipzig (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (80 of 102 users predict this - 78.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.45% – 86.41%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 48 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 3 - 6.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 42 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 10. Ansah I. 7. Burke O.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 19. Nedeljkovic K. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 9. Bakayoko J. 11. Harder C. 49. Diomande Y.
Substitutes
9. Burcu L. 23. Ilic A. 18. Juranovic J. 34. Nsoki S. 31. Raab M. (G) 15. Rothe T. 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C.	35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 8. Haidara A. 16. Klostermann L. 45. Konate S. 33. Maksimovic A. 42. Masanka Bungi J. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 36. Werner T.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Haberer J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
50', Raum D. 🟨,
55', Doekhi D. 🟨,
57', 1 - 0, Burke O. ⚽, Jeong Woo-Yeong (A),
58', Bakayoko J. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
59', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Gomis T. ⚽, Harder C. (A),
64', 2 - 1, Ansah I. ⚽, Trimmel C. (A),
67', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
68', Burke O. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
72', Harder C. 🟨,
81', Nedeljkovic K. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
85', Kohn D. ↓, Nsoki S. ↑,
85', Ansah I. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
90+1', Seiwald N. ↓, Werner T. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Skarke T. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1.

Union Berlin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

RB Leipzig is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

RB Leipzig is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Injury) Markgraf A. (Leg Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baku R. (Ankle Injury) Bitshiabu E. (Muscle Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Personal Reasons) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Romulo Cardoso (Knee Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:28. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Union Berlin - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 27.33%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Wolfsburg - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLLWT
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	RB Leipzig - Magdeburg	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.02.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:0
14.09.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	0:0
04.02.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	2:0
03.09.23	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:3
11.02.23	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	1:2
20.08.22	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	2:1
23.04.22	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	1:2

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