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Union Berlin - RB Leipzig

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 14
  • Date: 12 December 2025, Friday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Stadion An der Alten Fรถrsterei (Berlin) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
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    Union Berlin RB Leipzig
    Union Berlin RB Leipzig
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 3.1 ↓
    (3.48)    		 3.39 ↓
    (3.62)    		 2.32 ↑
    (2.05)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Union Berlin
    30.8%    		Draw
    28.1%    		RB Leipzig
    41.1%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    27.3% 26.3% 46.4%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    26.5% 25.6% 47.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RB Leipzig might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RB Leipzig could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    8.7% 12.6% 78.6%

    Union Berlin - RB Leipzig Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 2nd Half - RB Leipzig (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - RB Leipzig (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Union Berlin (1.62) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - RB Leipzig (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - RB Leipzig (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (80 of 102 users predict this - 78.43%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.45% โ€“ 86.41%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 48 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 3 - 6.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 42 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. DenmarkRonnow F. (G)
      5. NetherlandsDoekhi D.
    14. AustriaQuerfeld L.
      4. PortugalLeite D.
    19. GermanyHaberer J.
      8. GermanyKhedira R. (C)
      6. GermanyKemlein A.
    39. GhanaKohn D.
    11. SouthJeong Woo-Yeong
    10. GermanyAnsah I.
      7. ScotlandBurke O.
    		  1. HungaryGulacsi P. (G)
    19. SerbiaNedeljkovic K.
      4. HungaryOrban W.
    23. FranceLukeba C.
    22. GermanyRaum D. (C)
    24. AustriaSchlager X.
    13. AustriaSeiwald N.
    14. AustriaBaumgartner C.
      9. BelgiumBakayoko J.
    11. DenmarkHarder C.
    49. IvoryDiomande Y.
    Substitutes
      9. TurkeyBurcu L.
    23. SerbiaIlic A.
    18. CroatiaJuranovic J.
    34. FranceNsoki S.
    31. GermanyRaab M. (G)
    15. GermanyRothe T.
    13. HungarySchafer A.
    21. GermanySkarke T.
    28. AustriaTrimmel C.
    		35. GermanyFinkgrafe M.
    27. FranceGomis T.
      8. MaliHaidara A.
    16. GermanyKlostermann L.
    45. FranceKonate S.
    33. SerbiaMaksimovic A.
    42. BelgiumMasanka Bungi J.
    26. BelgiumVandevoordt M. (G)
    36. GermanyWerner T.
    Coaches
         GermanyBaumgart S.
    		     GermanyWerner O.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 37', Haberer J. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
    • 50', Raum D. 🟨,
    • 55', Doekhi D. 🟨,
    • 57', 1 - 0, Burke O. ⚽, Jeong Woo-Yeong (A),
    • 58', Bakayoko J. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
    • 59', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
    • 60', 1 - 1, Gomis T. ⚽, Harder C. (A),
    • 64', 2 - 1, Ansah I. ⚽, Trimmel C. (A),
    • 67', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
    • 68', Burke O. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
    • 72', Harder C. 🟨,
    • 81', Nedeljkovic K. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
    • 85', Kohn D. ↓, Nsoki S. ↑,
    • 85', Ansah I. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
    • 90+1', Seiwald N. ↓, Werner T. ↑,
    • 90+3', 3 - 1, Skarke T. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),

    Preview

  • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1.
  • Union Berlin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • RB Leipzig is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 3).
  • RB Leipzig is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
  • There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Injury) Markgraf A. (Leg Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baku R. (Ankle Injury) Bitshiabu E. (Muscle Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Personal Reasons) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Romulo Cardoso (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:28. (average 1:1.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

    • Last Results with these Odds

    Union Berlin - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 27.33%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Union Berlin
    German Bundesliga
    06.12.25 Wolfsburg - Union Berlin 3:1 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    03.12.25 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:3 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    29.11.25 Union Berlin - Heidenheim 1:2 ✺
    23.11.25 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    08.11.25 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6
    LLLWT
    - RB Leipzig
    German Bundesliga
    06.12.25 RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    02.12.25 RB Leipzig - Magdeburg 3:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    28.11.25 Borussia Mรถnchengladbach - RB Leipzig 0:0 ✺
    23.11.25 RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen 2:0 ✺
    08.11.25 Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig 3:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7
    WWTWL
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    01.02.25 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:0
    14.09.24 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 0:0
    04.02.24 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 2:0
    03.09.23 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:3
    11.02.23 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 1:2
    20.08.22 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 2:1
    23.04.22 RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 1:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Union Berlin
    German Bundesliga
    01.11.26 Union Berlin - Kรถln ✺
    - RB Leipzig
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 RB Leipzig - Manchester City ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Schalke 04 - RB Leipzig ✺

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