Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Berlin		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3.1
	2.42	3.2	3.05	Watch
	2.47	3.25	3.25
	2.38	3.22	3.15	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3
	2.45	3.32	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.11)	3.23 ↓ (3.45)	3.13 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
40.1%

Draw
29.5%

Werder Bremen
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

24.4%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	37%	18.5%

Union Berlin - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%). Werder will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 34.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 27% – 65.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Union Berlin (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Werder (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Union Berlin will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Werder (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 34. Nsoki S. 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 6. Kemlein A. 13. Schafer A. 39. Kohn D. 23. Ilic A. 10. Ansah I.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 4. Stark N. 32. Friedl M. (C) 2. Deman O. 6. Stage J. 14. Lynen S. 18. Puertas C. 17. Grull M. 9. Topp K. 20. Schmid R.
Substitutes
9. Burcu L. 7. Burke O. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 18. Juranovic J. 33. Kral A. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C.	10. Bittencourt L. 24. Covic P. 13. Hein K. (G) 46. Heitmann M. 22. Malatini J. 29. Musah S. 11. Njinmah J. 33. Schmetgens M. 23. Schmidt I.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Thioune D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
16', Stark N. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Kohn D. (Penalty Awarded),
19', Schafer A. 🟥,
31', 1 - 1, Deman O. ⚽, Stage J. (A),
36', 1 - 2, Stage J. ⚽, Puertas C. (A),
36', Topp K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Topp K. ↓, Bittencourt L. ↑,
46', Stark N. ↓, Malatini J. ↑,
63', Kemlein A. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
67', 1 - 3, Grull M. ⚽, Schmid R. (A),
70', Querfeld L. 🟨,
71', Ansah I. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
79', Malatini J. 🟨,
82', Nsoki S. ↓, Burke O. ↑,
83', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
83', Grull M. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,
90+2', Schmid R. ↓, Covic P. ↑,
90+3', Sugawara Y. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 4, Covic P. ⚽, Bittencourt L. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Union Berlin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Leite D. (Muscle Injury) Rothe T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Werder: Adeh W. (Knee Injury) Agu F. (Muscle Injury) Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly K. (Thigh Injury) Mbangula S. (Hamstring Injury) Pieper A. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Werder: Milosevic J. (Back Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Werder Bremen: 0.26% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10:10	0	8
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLTL
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Werder Bremen - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Werder Bremen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.10.25	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:0
03.05.25	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	2:2
21.12.24	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	4:1
16.03.24	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	2:1
28.10.23	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	2:0
27.05.23	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	1:0
25.01.23	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:2

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