Match Info

USA: USL League One

Date: 12 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Werner Park (Papillion, NE)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Disney+


	Union Omaha		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.5	4.1	4.75
	1.49	4.3	5
	1.56	4.45	5.2
	1.57	4.28	5.15	Watch
	1.51	4.15	5.11	Watch
	1.49	4.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.46)	4.26 ↓ (4.39)	5.04 ↓ (5.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Omaha
60.3%

Draw
21.5%

Lexington
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

21%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

19.7%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Omaha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Omaha than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Union Omaha, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Union Omaha - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Nuhu R. (C) 2. Jerome M. 4. Mastrantonio L. 3. Malone B. 26. Acoff D. 15. Knapp B. 23. Schneider M. 20. Ostrem C. 70. Kunga L. 9. Pedro Dolabella 7. Gallardo J.	13. Knight A. (G) 21. Young C. 44. Mendez M. 16. Uche C. 12. Corrales J. (C) 6. Caputo A. 8. Yankam Y. 32. Diouf A. 19. Canadi M. 2. Robertson T. 17. Lancaster C.
Substitutes
33. Aoumaich A. 77. Bawa I. 18. Bronnik M. 10. Dos Santos S. 13. Holt A. 27. Jiba R. 36. Lapsley W. (G) 99. Rodriguez M.	7. Cano I. 1. Causey A. (G) 74. Ceja E. 11. Cerritos A. 20. Lacey K. 9. Liadi A. 25. Mane P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Acoff D. ↓, Jiba R. ↑,
28', Uche C. 🟨,
42', Powell D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Mastrantonio L. 🟨,
61', Schneider M. 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Diouf A. ⚽, Caputo A. (A),
67', Kunga L. ↓, Dos Santos S. ↑,
67', Jiba R. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
72', Lancaster C. ↓, Lacey K. ↑,
76', Uche C. 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Pedro Dolabella (Pen),
79', Diouf A. ↓, Cerritos A. ↑,
88', Yankam Y. ↓, Liadi A. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Mastrantonio L. ⚽, Ostrem C. (A),

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Omaha
USL League One
05.10.24	Richmond Kickers - Union Omaha	0:0 ✺
02.10.24	Union Omaha - Spokane Velocity	4:0 ✺
21.09.24	Union Omaha - One Knoxville	1:0 ✺
14.09.24	Northern Colorado Hailstorm - Union Omaha	2:3 ✺
USL Cup
11.09.24	Northern Colorado Hailstorm - Union Omaha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWWWL
- Lexington SC
USL League One
05.10.24	Greenville Triumph - Lexington	2:1 ✺
21.09.24	Richmond Kickers - Lexington	3:0 ✺
18.09.24	Lexington - Central Valley Fuego	7:1 ✺
13.09.24	Lexington - One Knoxville	0:1 ✺
07.09.24	Northern Colorado Hailstorm - Lexington	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
06.07.24	Lexington - Union Omaha	2:4
02.08.23	Union Omaha - Lexington	2:0
22.07.23	Lexington - Union Omaha	3:0

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