Match Info

Date: 9 May 2022, Monday


	Universidad San Martín		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	6.5	4	1.55	Watch
	5.5	3.75	1.52
	5.8	3.85	1.51
	5.6	3.8	1.52
	6.36	4.14	1.53
	6	3.6	1.52	Watch
	5.95	4.15	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.96 ↑ (4.99)	3.9 ↑ (3.73)	1.53 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad San Martín
15.6%

Draw
23.8%

Alianza Lima
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

25.5%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

24.3%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.7%	8.7%	69.6%

Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Uni San Martín will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Lima: 50.8% – 88.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 1.

Universidad San Martín is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alianza Lima is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Universidad San Martín could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Alianza Lima is a favorite.

Last 24 head-to-head matches Universidad San Martín won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 31-38.

Including matches at home between the teams Universidad San Martín won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 16-17.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.22	Cajamarca - Universidad San Martín	3:1 ✺
24.04.22	Universidad San Martín - Sport Huancayo	1:1 ✺
10.04.22	Universidad San Martín - FBC Melgar	2:0 ✺
01.04.22	Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martín	4:1 ✺
25.03.22	Universidad San Martín - Escuela Municipal Binacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTWLL
- Alianza Lima
Copa Libertadores
05.05.22	Alianza Lima - Colo-Colo	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.22	Alianza Lima - Carlos Stein	5:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.04.22	Fortaleza - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.04.22	Cantolao - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
17.04.22	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
08.08.21	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	0:2
13.10.20	Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín	0:1
13.10.19	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	2:3
28.04.19	Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín	1:0
21.11.18	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	1:1
05.08.18	Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martín	3:1
29.04.18	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Lima	1:0

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