Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Spain	LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Vélez Sársfield		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.88	3.2	4.4
	1.85	3.2	4.45	Watch
	1.88	3.24	4.97
	1.85	3.1	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.32	4.76	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.83)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	4.63 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
50.6%

Draw
29.1%

Fortaleza
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

28.4%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

27.5%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Vélez Sársfield - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 1 - 20%). Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Vélez (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 21. Gordon J. 18. Magallan L. 6. Quiros A. 3. Gomez E. 5. Baeza C. 23. Aliendro R. 28. Carrizo M. 8. Galvan T. 39. Machuca I. 9. Braian Romero (C)	23. Leite H. (G) 14. Mancuso E. 33. Britez E. (C) 39. Gustavo Mancha 6. Bruno Pacheco 17. Ze Welison 38. Lucca Prior 11. Marinho 88. Lucas Sasha 26. Breno Lopes 18. Deyverson
Substitutes
50. Andrada T. 35. Arias M. 26. Bouzat A. 37. Cavanagh T. 15. Godoy D. 14. Lagos A. 2. Mammana E. 12. Montero A. (G) 11. Pellegrini M. 20. Pizzini F. 7. Santos M. 40. Silvero T.	19. Allanzinho 77. Andrade K. 32. Avila G. 27. Bareiro A. 16. Diogo Barbosa 79. Herrera J. 9. Lucero J. 29. Rodrigo 2. Tinga 12. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 36. Weverson 22. Yago Pikachu
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Alves R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Carrizo M. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
8', Carrizo M. 🟨,
28', 2 - 0, Galvan T. ⚽, Gordon J. (A),
40', Ze Welison 🟨,
42', Aliendro R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
46', Breno Lopes ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
46', Marinho ↓, Allanzinho ↑,
46', Mancuso E. 🟨,
61', Ze Welison ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
66', Machuca I. ↓, Pellegrini M. ↑,
66', Galvan T. ↓, Andrada T. ↑,
68', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
75', Carrizo M. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
75', Mancuso E. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
84', Braian Romero ↓, Santos M. ↑,
84', Aliendro R. ↓, Bouzat A. ↑,
90+1', Yago Pikachu 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fortaleza is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Vélez is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Vélez: Andrada I. (Back Injury) Bouzat A. (Calf Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Mammana E. (Injury) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Valdes D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Matheus Rossetto (Red Card) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury) Kuscevic B. (Inactive) Pereira M. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vélez won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 4.6 are the expected chance of winning is 20.38%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Fortaleza - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.08.25	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Vélez Sársfield - Instituto Córdoba	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	Platense - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTLTT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Fluminense - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Fortaleza - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
03.08.25	Corinthians - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
29.07.25	Grêmio - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Fortaleza - Vélez Sársfield	0:0

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