Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 8

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Vasco da Gama		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.98	3.5	3.75
	1.92	3.35	3.95	Watch
	1.93	3.55	4.57
	1.87	3.52	4.39	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.91	3.45	4.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.09)	3.45 ↑ (3.41)	4.19 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
50%

Draw
27.4%

Grêmio
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

27.8%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

28%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Vasco da Gama - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 25. Hugo Moura 17. Moreira N. 3. Tche Tche 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 11. Andres Gomez 7. David	1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 2. Fabian Balbuena 44. Viery 38. Caio Paulista 5. Nardoni J. 33. Perez L. 21. Tete 8. Arthur Melo (C) 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
28. Adson 20. Brenner 88. Cauan Barros 46. Cuesta C. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 9. Matheus Franca 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C.	77. Andre Henrique 22. Braithwaite M. 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 6. Gustavo Martins 14. Marcos Rocha 11. Monsalve M. 19. Noriega E. 54. Pedro Gabriel 4. Walter Kannemann 10. Willian
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Cuiabano ⚽, David (A),
22', Cuiabano 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, David ⚽, Cuiabano (A),
38', 2 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Nardoni J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
46', Fabian Balbuena ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
48', Viery 🟨,
56', Nardoni J. ↓, Willian ↑,
58', Moreira N. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
58', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
64', Amuzu F. ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
68', Thiago Mendes ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
69', David ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
69', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
75', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
82', Cuiabano ↓, Lucas Piton ↑,
90+4', Andres Gomez 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 1.

Vasco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Grêmio is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vasco is the team to beat.

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Injury) Gustavo Martins (Inactive) Joao Pedro (Inactive) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Marlon (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 12:27. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 0.9:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
18.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.02.26	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WTWTL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
19.03.26	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
12.03.26	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.11.25	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	2:0
19.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	1:1
28.07.24	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:0
14.04.24	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1
03.12.23	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:0
06.08.23	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
11.09.22	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	2:1

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