Match Info

Date: 31 August 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Vasco da Gama (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Goncalves Lima J. (Bra)


	Vasco da Gama		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.1	4.6
	1.78	3.1	4.6
	1.81	3.15	4.5
	1.83	3.29	5.33
	1.83	3	5
	1.84	3.2	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 (1.82)	3.14 ↓ (3.23)	4.79 ↓ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
51.1%

Draw
29.6%

Guarani
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

29.9%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

29.9%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	11.9%	7.1%

Vasco da Gama - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: Vasco da Gama will win (34 of 42 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.07% – 92.83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage)).

Vasco is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Guarani is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vasco could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Vasco is a favorite.

There will not play in Vasco: Gabriel Dias (Injury) Raniel (Injury) Riquelme (Injury)

There will not play in Guarani: Diogo Mateus (Injury) Eliel (Injury) Jenison (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Vasco won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie B
28.08.22	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
18.08.22	CS Alagoano - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
13.08.22	Vasco da Gama - Tombense	3:1 ✺
09.08.22	Ponte Preta - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
31.07.22	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLT
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
27.08.22	Guarani - Tombense	2:1 ✺
20.08.22	Ponte Preta - Guarani	1:0 ✺
13.08.22	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
10.08.22	Criciúma - Guarani	0:0 ✺
05.08.22	Guarani - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.05.22	Guarani - Vasco da Gama	0:0
04.11.21	Guarani - Vasco da Gama	1:0
24.07.21	Vasco da Gama - Guarani	4:1

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