Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 7 March 2024, Thursday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	1.8	4	4
	1.78	3.9	4.1
	1.85	4	4	Watch
	1.82	4.04	4.23
	1.81	4.03	4.24
	1.8	3.9	4
	1.87	4.04	4.31
	1.84	4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.02)	3.99 ↑ (3.56)	4.12 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
52.7%

Draw
24.1%

Villarreal
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

26.7%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

28%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	26%	14%

Olympique Marseille - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 30 - 60%). Villarreal will win (votes: 7 - 14%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 26%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 46.4% – 73.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Lopez P. (G) 7. Clauss J. 99. Mbemba Ch. 5. Balerdi L. 3. Merlin Q. 27. Veretout J. 19. Kondogbia G. (C) 11. Harit A. 23. Sarr I. 10. Aubameyang P. 29. Ndiaye I.	1. Reina P. (G) 2. Mosquera Y. 23. Mandi A. 12. Bailly E. 5. Cuenca J. 27. Akhomach I. 4. Comesana S. 19. Coquelin F. 16. Baena A. 7. Moreno G. (C) 9. Guedes G.
Substitutes
36. Blanco R. (G) 20. Correa J. 44. Luis Henrique 18. Meite A. 14. Moumbagna F. 8. Ounahi A. 37. Soglo E.	26. Altimira A. 31. Alvarez I. (G) 6. Capoue E. 13. Jorgensen F. (G) 17. Kiko 15. Morales J. L. 18. Moreno A. 10. Parejo D. 11. Sorloth A. 14. Trigueros M.
Coaches
Gasset J.	Marcelino G.

Preview

1st leg.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Villarreal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Marseille is a favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Injury) Gigot S. (Injury) Murillo M. (Muscle Injury) Nadir B. (Knee Injury) Rongier V. (Knee Injury) Ruiz P. (Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Albiol R. (Muscle Injury) Pedraza A. (Ankle Injury) Pino Y. (Knee Injury) Suarez D. (Muscle Injury) Terrats R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Veretout J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Marseille won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Marseille won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
02.03.24	Clermont - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
25.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.02.24	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Shakhtar Donetsk - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLT
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
03.03.24	Villarreal - Granada	5:1 ✺
23.02.24	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
16.02.24	Villarreal - Getafe	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
04.02.24	Villarreal - Cádiz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.07.21	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	2:1
21.07.18	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	1:1

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