Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 13

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	4	3.6	1.85	Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.82
	3.7	3.5	1.92	Watch
	3.82	3.64	2
	3.8	3.55	1.92	Watch
	3.75	3.3	1.95
	3.87	3.53	1.9	Watch
	3.55	3.5	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (3.8)	3.5 ↓ (3.55)	1.92 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
24.8%

Draw
26.6%

Independiente del Valle
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

26.3%

49.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

25.7%

50.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 36. Nardelli G. 4. Aguirre A. 2. Iriarte I. 23. Gomez L. 15. Larotonda C. 40. Mera F. 11. Mina A. 18. Ushina K. 17. Monti R. 9. Molina N.	1. Ramirez M. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 5. Schunke R. 14. Carabajal M. 15. Cortez G. 32. Mendez J. 7. Mercado P. 18. Zabala C. 8. Ibarra R. 31. Pata E. 9. Medina J.
Substitutes
8. Caicedo J. 13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 26. Hernandez E. 19. Hernandez L. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 10. Luna D. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E.	6. Alcivar J. 26. Cazares 11. Hoyos M. 30. Ibarra R. 19. Loor L. 4. Quinonez O. 23. Santamaria T. 10. Sornoza J. 77. Spinelli C. 33. Velasco A. 22. Villar G. (G) 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Grabowski J.	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Pata E. ⚽, Ibarra R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 1 - 1, Molina N. ⚽,
54', Iriarte I. 🟨,
63', Zabala C. 🟨,
64', Medina J. ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
64', Zabala C. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
65', Mera F. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
71', Mendez J. ↓, Alcivar J. ↑,
71', Ibarra R. ↓,
77', Molina N. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
78', Cortez G. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Mercado P. ⚽, Alcivar J. (A),
87', Ibarra R. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 3, Spinelli C. ⚽, Hoyos M. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ind del Valle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ind del Valle has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ind del Valle is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.05.25	El Nacional - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Vinotinto - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Técnico Universitario - Vinotinto	1:3 ✺
09.04.25	Vinotinto - Delfín	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLLWW
- Independiente del Valle
Copa Libertadores
15.05.25	River Plate - Independiente del Valle	6:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.05.25	Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Universitario de Deportes - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Orense - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.02.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	0:0
Ecuadorian Copa
29.08.24	Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle	1:2

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