Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Cabero J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus, Inter
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Vitória Salvador		Universidad Católica del Ecuador

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.1	6	Watch
	1.72	3.5	4.8
	1.55	4	6
	1.58	3.92	6.24	Watch
	1.75	3.2	5	Watch
	1.57	4.11	5.79	Watch
	1.55	4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.64)	3.83 ↑ (3.65)	5.69 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
58.7%

Draw
24.7%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

25.5%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

25.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Vitória Salvador - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitória Salvador will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 3. Ze Marcos 5. Lucas Halter 16. Hugo 27. Caceres R. (C) 28. Ricardo 30. Matheuzinho 44. Baralhas 7. Gustavo Mosquito 22. Lucas Braga 39. Janderson	12. Lara J. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 20. Castillo Saa J. L. 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. 5. Cacciabue J. 15. Moreno L. 28. Diaz M. 37. Medina C. 9. Londono A. 11. Diaz I. (C)
Substitutes
99. Carlinhos 2. Claudinho 43. Edu 88. Emerson Buiu 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 21. Gabriel (G) 38. Leo Pereira 6. Pepe 8. Ronald Lopes 10. Wellington Rato 29. Willian Oliveira	8. Clavijo E. 7. Fajardo J. 4. Jhon Chancellor 30. Maciel M. 3. Mosquera I. 18. Palacios B. 23. Rodriguez A. 14. Sanchez I. 17. Troya R. 1. Valencia E. (G) 44. Valencia E.
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Anangono G. 🟨,
17', Lucas Braga 🟨,
19', Castillo Saa J. L. 🟨,
37', Cacciabue J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ricardo ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Londono A. ⚽, Moreno L. (A),
59', Lucas Braga ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
59', Gustavo Mosquito ↓, Erick ↑,
65', Castillo Saa J. L. 🟨,
67', Diaz M. ↓, Jhon Chancellor ↑,
69', Ze Marcos ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Matheuzinho (Pen),
86', Janderson ↓, Fabricio ↑,
90+1', Cacciabue J. ↓, Clavijo E. ↑,
90+5', Lara J. 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Uni Católica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Vitória is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
16.03.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTTWL
- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.03.25	Vinotinto - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	3:2 ✺
15.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Manta	3:0 ✺
09.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	1:0 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.03.25	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWTWT

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