Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 10

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
World	Triller TV+


	Vitoria Guimarães		Benfica

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.5	1.42	Watch
	7.4	4.45	1.41	Watch
	5.92	4.52	1.50	Watch
				Watch
	6.74	4.66	1.5	Watch
	6.6	4.3	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.58 ↓ (6.66)	4.49 ↑ (4.4)	1.46 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
14.3%

Draw
21.1%

Benfica
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.9%

21.1%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.1%

20.8%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	15.4%	53.8%

Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Benfica will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Guimarães (6.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Guimarães (7.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitoria Guimarães will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Benfica (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 23. Sousa D. 18. Arcanjo T. 20. Samu (C) 22. Blanco F. 19. Camara O.	1. Trubin A. (G) 8. Aursnes F. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 44. Araujo T. 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 20. Rios R. 11. Lukebakio D. 10. Sudakov G. 25. Prestianni G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
27. Charles Silva (G) 21. Felix V. 17. Lebedenko O. 6. Mitrovic M. 3. Nobrega M. 30. Nogueira G. 88. Nogueira M. 7. Oliveira N. 48. Saviolo N.	39. Araujo H. 18. Barreiro L. 9. Ivanovic F. 3. Obrador R. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J.
Coaches
Pinto L.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Pavlidis V. 🟨,
45+1', Sudakov G. 🟨,
45+2', Prestianni G. 🟨,
45+2', Maga 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Sudakov G. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
46', Prestianni G. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
52', Beni 🟨,
53', 0 - 1, Araujo T. ⚽, Lukebakio D. (A),
56', Blanco F. 🟥,
61', Sousa D. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
61', Maga ↓, Nobrega M. ↑,
62', Arcanjo T. ↓, Felix V. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Dahl S. ⚽, Barreiro L. (A),
73', Samu ↓, Oliveira N. ↑,
79', Camara O. ↓, Saviolo N. ↑,
83', Lukebakio D. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
87', 0 - 3, Rego J. ⚽,
89', Felix V. 🟨,
90', Otamendi N. 🟨,
90', Pavlidis V. ↓, Araujo H. ↑,
90+1', Rios R. ↓, Veloso J. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 0.

Recent performances by Guimarães have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Benfica is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Gustavo (Injury) Nogueira G. (Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Dedic A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 12:42. (average 0.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:20. (average 0.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	União Lamas - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWLT
- SL Benfica
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.10.25	Benfica - Arouca	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Newcastle United - Benfica	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.10.25	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Porto - Benfica	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
19.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3
07.12.24	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
11.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	2:2
02.09.23	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	4:0
18.03.23	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	5:1
01.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:0
27.02.22	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0

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