Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Vitoria Guimarães		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.45	Watch
	6.4	4.45	1.46	Watch
	7.75	4.73	1.39
	6.89	4.51	1.46	Watch
	6	4.2	1.44
	6.91	4.58	1.5	Watch
	6	4.5	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.56 ↓ (6.84)	4.47 ↑ (4.41)	1.45 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
14.3%

Draw
21%

Sporting Lisbon
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.8%

21.4%

64.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

19.4%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

The chances for Sporting Lisbon have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.1%	12.1%	75.8%

Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 4 - 12.1%). Sporting will win (votes: 25 - 75.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 61.2% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1.25 - Guimarães (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1 - Sporting (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Sporting (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 28. Thiago Balieiro 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 30. Nogueira G. 6. Mitrovic M. 19. Camara O. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. 91. Mangas R. 52. Simoes J. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 17. Trincao 89. Ioannidis F. 20. Araujo M. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 3. Nobrega M. 7. Oliveira N. 80. Rocha R. 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T.	27. Alisson Santos 70. Blopa S. 58. Goncalves F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 2. Matheus Reis 5. Morita H. 28. Ribeiro R. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Pinto L.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
32', 0 - 1, Trincao ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Ioannidis F. ⚽, Mangas R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Camara O. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
46', Mitrovic M. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Arcanjo T. ⚽, Sousa D. (A),
58', Araujo M. 🟨,
62', Mendes J. II. 🟨,
63', 1 - 3, Castillo J. (Own goal),
67', Samu ↓, Oliveira N. ↑,
76', Quaresma E. 🟨,
76', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
79', 1 - 4, Araujo M. ⚽,
80', Saviolo N. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
84', Blanco F. 🟨,
84', Ioannidis F. ↓, Blopa S. ↑,
84', Araujo M. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
85', Nogueira G. ↓, Rocha R. ↑,
87', Blopa S. 🟨,
87', Oliveira N. 🟥,
89', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
90', Fresneda I. 🟨,
90+2', Fresneda I. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
90+3', Trincao ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
90+6', Abascal R. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sporting is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Beni (International duty) Gustavo (Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Catamo G. (International duty) Debast Z. (Knee Injury) Diomande O. (International duty) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Morita H. (Inactive) Quenda G. (Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:42. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:25. (average 1.5:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 LWTWW
- Sporting Lisbon
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.05.25	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0
03.01.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	4:4
21.04.24	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0
09.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	3:2
24.04.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	0:2
05.11.22	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0
19.03.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:3

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