Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 20

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN Extra


	Willem II		Cambuur

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.75	2.7	Watch
	2.32	3.7	2.68
	2.37	3.84	2.81
	2.3	3.84	2.71	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.7
	2.34	3.6	2.67	Watch
	2.33	3.6	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.75)	3.69 ↑ (3.5)	2.7 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
40.3%

Draw
25.3%

Cambuur
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

26%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

25.1%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Willem II's performance.

Cambuur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cambuur might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Willem II that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambuur than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cambuur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Willem II - Cambuur Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Cambuur will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cambuur: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Willem II (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cambuur will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Willem II (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Cambuur (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 2. Ciranni A. 30. Behounek R. 3. Stam F. 24. Tjoe a On N. 20. El Allouchi M. 6. Besselink G. 19. van Aalst U. 7. Doodeman N. 9. Haen D. 17. Bamba S.	1. Jansen T. (G) 16. Mulders R. 4. Baouf I. 6. Amofa J. 22. Galvez T. 46. Nap J. 18. Rolke T. 10. Diemers M. 7. Balk R. 14. van der Sande J. 11. Sjostrand O.
Substitutes
47. Baartmans S. 8. Culum A. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 4. Hoogma J. 11. Kehrer E. 14. Mathijsen J. 41. van der Bas V. (G) 22. van Loon P. 45. van Maarschalkerwaard P. 18. Zarrouk A.	13. Binder N. 26. Ferrah I. 19. Henstra I. 2. Jermoumi D. 24. Jonker T. 31. Kalisvaart M. 27. Kooistra W. 21. Meijster J. (G) 8. Souren N. . van der Heide W. 40. Veldhuis S. 9. Visser K.
Coaches
Stegeman J.	de Jong H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Nap J. ↓, Souren N. ↑,
24', Ciranni A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Balk R. ↓, Ferrah I. ↑,
66', Sjostrand O. ↓, Kooistra W. ↑,
73', van der Sande J. ↓, Visser K. ↑,
73', Mulders R. ↓, Henstra I. ↑,
74', El Allouchi M. ↓, Zarrouk A. ↑,
74', Bamba S. ↓, Culum A. ↑,
75', Henstra I. 🟨,
90', 0 - 1, Ferrah I. ⚽,
90+1', Tjoe a On N. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 1.

Recent performances by Willem II have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cambuur is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) van Berkel N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cambuur: Nap J. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Cambuur - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 40.96%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eerste Divisie
06.12.25	Willem II - Dordrecht	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Den Bosch - Willem II	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	VVV-Venlo - Willem II	0:2 ✺
15.11.25	Willem II - Emmen	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Willem II - FC Oss	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWTT
- Leeuwarden Cambuur
Dutch Eerste Divisie
05.12.25	Cambuur - Den Bosch	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Cambuur - Helmond Sport	0:0 ✺
21.11.25	Cambuur - ADO Den Haag	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	FC Eindhoven - Cambuur	3:3 ✺
07.11.25	Vitesse - Cambuur	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
06.09.25	Cambuur - Willem II	2:2
02.02.24	Willem II - Cambuur	1:1
17.09.23	Cambuur - Willem II	1:0
Dutch Eredivisie
11.05.22	Cambuur - Willem II	1:1
Club Friendly
07.01.22	Willem II - Cambuur	Canceled
Dutch Eredivisie
10.12.21	Willem II - Cambuur	1:3
21.04.16	Cambuur - Willem II	1:1

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