Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Mario Camposeco (Quetzaltenango)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	OneSoccer
Mexico	FOX One, Tubi TV
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 2, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com
Venezuela	Disney+


	Xelajú		Alajuelense

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.67	3.15	2.91
	2.65	2.88	2.89	Watch
	2.45	2.88	2.75
	2.45	2.94	2.74	Watch
	2.54	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (3.51)	2.97 ↓ (3.15)	2.81 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xelajú
36.1%

Draw
31%

Alajuelense
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

29.5%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

29.4%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xelajú has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Xelajú's performance.

Alajuelense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alajuelense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xelajú than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Xelajú that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alajuelense than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alajuelense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Xelajú - Alajuelense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alajuelense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva D. (G) 25. Ruiz K. 4. Romero M. 14. Gonzalez J. 13. Tebalan W. 7. Diaz Y. 16. Cardona J. 52. Aparicio J. (C) 99. Da Silva R. L. 10. Lopez A. 9. Baez P.	1. Mora B. (G) 26. Pinar F. 4. Villalobos Alfaro G. 13. Gamboa A. 22. Matarrita R. 7. Hernandez A. 5. Borges C. (C) 12. Campbell J. 21. Michel K. 33. Lucumi J. 18. Cisneros R.
Substitutes
23. Calderon R. 11. Cardenas S. 26. Cardoza E. 18. Castaneda J. 29. Chang E. (G) 6. de Leon M. 28. de Oliveira C. 90. Gondola F. 77. Longo J. 17. Ochaeta D. 20. Quezada Gamez H. E. 12. Quiros D.	99. Alvarez J. (G) 14. Bran Flores A. J. 11. Campos D. 38. Demetrius T. 35. Parkins R. 2. Paz D. 34. Perez C. 90. Rodriguez D. 24. Salazar A. 19. Toril A. 25. van der Putten S. 40. Velasquez D. (G)
Coaches
Villatoro A.	Ramirez O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Campbell J. ↓, Campos D. ↑,
62', Matarrita R. ↓, Perez C. ↑,
67', Da Silva R. L. ↓, Cardoza E. ↑,
67', Gonzalez J. ↓, Calderon R. ↑,
70', Tebalan W. 🟨,
72', Gondola F. 🟥,
74', 0 - 1, Cisneros R. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Baez P. ↓, Cardenas S. ↑,
81', Diaz Y. ↓, Quezada Gamez H. E. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Cardona J. ⚽,
83', Villatoro A. 🟨,
86', Quezada Gamez H. E. 🟨,
87', Borges C. ↓, Parkins R. ↑,
87', Cisneros R. ↓, Salazar A. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Lucumi J. ↓, Demetrius T. ↑,
99', Pinar F. ↓, van der Putten S. ↑,
101', Cardona J. ↓, Quiros D. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Lopez A. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Campos D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Quezada Gamez H. E. (Penalty Awarded),
2, van der Putten S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Aparicio J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Gamboa A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Quiros D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Salazar A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Cardenas S. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Villalobos Alfaro G. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

In recent matches, Xelajú has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alajuelense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alajuelense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alajuelense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Xelajú won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Alajuelense - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.03%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Xelajú
Guatemala Liga Nacional
30.11.25	Comunicaciones - Xelajú	0:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
26.11.25	Alajuelense - Xelajú	1:1 ✺
Guatemala Liga Nacional
21.11.25	Xelajú - Cobán Imperial	3:1 ✺
16.11.25	Aurora - Xelajú	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Xelajú - Deportivo Achuapa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTWLT
- LD Alajuelense
Costa Rican Primera Division
30.11.25	Cartagines - Alajuelense	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
26.11.25	Alajuelense - Xelajú	1:1 ✺
Costa Rican Primera Division
23.11.25	Alajuelense - Sporting San José	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Alajuelense - Cartagines	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Municipal Liberia - Alajuelense	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Central American Cup
26.11.25	Alajuelense - Xelajú	1:1

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