Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Alexander Bublik		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.48	1.55	Watch
	2.72	1.52
	2.33	1.63	Watch
	2.38	1.57
	2.35	1.61	Watch
	2.4	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.24)	1.57 ↓ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
39%

Alex De Minaur
61%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	0%	64.7%

Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 12 - 35.3%). De Minaur will win (votes: 22 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 48.6% – 80.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 38 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games - De Minaur (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Bublik (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 5 - 25%). De Minaur (votes: 15 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 10. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 6.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 3.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Bublik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

De Minaur might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that De Minaur will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Bublik - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.64%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Alex De Minaur - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.36%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Alexander Bublik - Marton Fucsovics	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Alexander Bublik - Jenson Brooksby	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Kooyong Men
14.01.26	Bu Yunchaokete - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
11.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Alex De Minaur	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
18.01.26	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
ATP United Cup
09.01.26	Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
31.10.25	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	2:1
ATP Roland Garros
29.05.25	Alex De Minaur - Alexander Bublik	2:3
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.24	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	0:2
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.22	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	Canceled
ATP Barcelona
21.04.21	Alex De Minaur - Alexander Bublik	2:0
ATP Antalya
13.01.21	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	Bublik A. retired

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