Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53	Watch
	2.47	1.55
	2.48	1.6
	2.48	1.53	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.53	1.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.63)	1.55 ↑ (1.47)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
38.4%

Denis Shapovalov
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

64.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

64.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Budkov Kjaer will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Budkov Kjaer (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Budkov Kjaer (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Budkov Kjaer is ranked ATP: 140. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 35.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Budkov Kjaer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Shapovalov might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Reilly Opelka	Opelka R. Retired ✺
21.04.26	Moez Echargui - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 ?WWLL
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Munich
17.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
16.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Denis Shapovalov - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLL

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Denis Shapovalov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide