Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Jannik Sinner		Arthur Fils

	1	2
	1.13	6	Watch
	1.16	5.25	Watch
	1.14	5.8	Watch
	1.18	5.97
	1.16	5.6	Watch
	1.14	5.5	Watch
	1.18	5.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↑ (1.15)	5.65 ↑ (5.32)

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jannik Sinner
83%

Arthur Fils
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

82.2%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Arthur Fils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	0%	23.5%

Jannik Sinner - Arthur Fils Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Fils will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sinner (votes: 3 - 60%). Fils (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Fils (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sinner (votes: 3 - 50%). Fils (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Fils is ranked ATP: 25.

In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.

Fils may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sinner is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jannik Sinner
ATP Madrid
29.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
28.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Jannik Sinner - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWW
- Arthur Fils
ATP Madrid
29.04.26	Arthur Fils - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
28.04.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Arthur Fils - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Arthur Fils - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
19.04.26	Andrey Rublev - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marseille
23.02.23	Arthur Fils - Jannik Sinner	Fils A. walkover
ATP Montpellier
11.02.23	Arthur Fils - Jannik Sinner	0:2

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