Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Joao Fonseca		Rafael Jodar

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	2.12	1.73
	2.18	1.8
	2.1	1.74	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.16	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.89)	1.75 ↓ (1.89)

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
45.1%

Rafael Jodar
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Joao Fonseca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rafael Jodar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Joao Fonseca - Rafael Jodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Fonseca will win (votes: 9 - 32.1%). Jodar will win (votes: 19 - 67.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jodar: 50.6% – 85.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 31. Jodar is ranked ATP: 42.

In recent matches, Fonseca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jodar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fonseca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Marin Cilic	Fonseca J. Walkover ✺
ATP Munich
17.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.26	Joao Fonseca - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ?LWWL
- Rafael Jodar
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
18.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLWW

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