Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday


	Marton Fucsovics		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
			Watch
	1.78	2	Watch
	1.81	2.09
	1.76	2.07	Watch
	1.79	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.13)	2.04 ↑ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marton Fucsovics
53.2%

Francis Tiafoe
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marton Fucsovics has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marton Fucsovics's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marton Fucsovics than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marton Fucsovics that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Marton Fucsovics - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Fucsovics will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marton Fucsovics will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fucsovics is ranked ATP: 58. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 29.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Fucsovics won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.1%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marton Fucsovics
ATP Tokyo
23.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Filip Misolic	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Marton Fucsovics - Denis Shapovalov	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWL?L
- Francis Tiafoe
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Francis Tiafoe - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Francis Tiafoe - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
29.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:3 ✺
27.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Martin Damm	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Yoshihito Nishioka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Stuttgart
17.06.23	Francis Tiafoe - Marton Fucsovics	2:0
ATP US Open
05.09.20	Marton Fucsovics - Francis Tiafoe	0:3
ATP Doha
07.01.20	Francis Tiafoe - Marton Fucsovics	1:2
ATP Geneva
23.05.18	Francis Tiafoe - Marton Fucsovics	0:2

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