Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 12 August 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 3
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Austria	Laola1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Colombia	ESPN 3
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Laola1, Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Peru	ESPN 3
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports UHD


	Rafael Jodar		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	1.40	3.00	Watch
	1.40	2.95
	1.42	2.88	Watch
	1.46	3.05
	1.43	2.94	Watch
	1.42	3.00
	1.42	2.98	Watch
	1.40	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	2.96 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
67.6%

Brandon Nakashima
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	0%	46.7%

Rafael Jodar - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Jodar will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Nakashima will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 15. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 31.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Jodar is considered a favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Rafael Jodar - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 68.15%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Montreal
11.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
06.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Corentin Moutet	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
03.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWWL
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Montreal
11.08.26	Luciano Darderi - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Titouan Droguet	2:1 ✺
04.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
01.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Taylor Harry Fritz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWWL

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