Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pozoblanco, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday


	Rafael Jodar		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.61	2.18	Watch
	1.65	2.27
			Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.63	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.75)	2.18 ↑ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
57.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Rafael Jodar - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rafael Jodar will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 555. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 233.

Jodar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Merida Aguilar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Jodar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jodar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Challenger
14.07.25	Rafael Jodar - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	2:1 ✺
27.06.25	Dino Prizmic - Rafael Jodar	2:1 ✺
26.06.25	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
25.06.25	Tiago Pereira - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
23.06.25	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Giustino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLWWW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
14.07.25	Robin Bertrand - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
02.07.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Federico Cina	0:2 ✺
30.06.25	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.06.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Titouan Droguet	0:2 ✺
19.06.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Kilian Feldbausch	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.04.24	Rafael Jodar - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2

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