Match Info

Liiga

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Ilves		SaiPa

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.75	4
	1.85	4.05	3.7	Watch
	1.79	4.7	4
	1.68	4.61	3.97
	1.67	4	3.5
	1.75	4.5	3.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.73)	4.44 ↑ (4.26)	3.82 ↓ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
54.2%

Draw
21.2%

SaiPa
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

21.9%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

23.5%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ilves - SaiPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
40. Armalis M. (G)	31. Grigals G. (G)
23. Johansson S.	50. Salminen S. (A)
57. Parikka J.	26. Kivihalme T.
46. Torok M.	18. Heikkila J.
12. Mantykivi M.	15. Salomaki M.
92. Henman L.	81. Klintrup E.
Line 2
6. Soini S.	14. Kramer B.
21. Kucerik R.	55. Trejbal O.
29. Looke J.	51. Kalapudas A.
9. Jasek L.	82. Nikkanen H.
17. Ratinen S.	10. Kivenmaki O.
Line 3
3. Utunen T. (A)	6. Airola S.
28. Nyberg J.	7. Niinisaari S. (C)
48. Klingberg C. (A)	92. Zezelj A.
11. Borg E.	12. Bau S.
22. Engberg T.	70. Naukkarinen J.
Line 4
43. Latvala O.	22. Aho K.
89. Quenneville P.	11. Moilanen V.
86. Nattinen J. (C)	21. Appelgren N. (A)
20. Bjorkqvist K.	62. Tauslahti M.
Substitutes
39. Pavlat D. (G)	30. Piiroinen K. (G)
Coaches
. Niemela T.	. Helminen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
08:42, 0 - 1, Kalapudas A. (G), Kivenmaki O. (A), Kramer B. (A2)
08:56, Kalapudas A. (2 min),
10:18, Trejbal O. (2 min),
12:15, Henman L. (2 min),
2nd Period (4 - 0)
02:27, 1 - 1, Engberg T. (G),
03:02, 2 - 1, Nattinen J. (G), Bjorkqvist K. (A), Utunen T. (A2)
03:16, 3 - 1, Ratinen S. (G), Johansson S. (A),
11:34, 4 - 1, Borg E. (G), Engberg T. (A), Utunen T. (A2)
11:34, Grigals G. ↓, Piiroinen K. ↑,
17:21, Nikkanen H. (2 min),
17:21, Mantykivi M. (2 min),
17:50, Nattinen J. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
08:31, Klintrup E. (2 min),
16:32, Engberg T. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 4.

Ilves is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

SaiPa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

SaiPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ilves is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 75:44. (average 3.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 39:15. (average 3.9:1.5).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 4.07%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
14.03.26	Lukko - Ilves	4:1 ✺
13.03.26	JYP - Ilves	3:6 ✺
10.03.26	Ilves - HPK	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	TPS - Ilves	1:4 ✺
06.03.26	Ilves - Tappara	4:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWW
- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
14.03.26	SaiPa - Tappara	6:4 ✺
11.03.26	Pelicans - SaiPa	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	SaiPa - Pelicans	4:2 ✺
04.03.26	HIFK - SaiPa	2:5 ✺
28.02.26	SaiPa - HPK	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
31.10.25	SaiPa - Ilves	5:2
01.03.25	SaiPa - Ilves	3:6
09.12.24	Ilves - SaiPa	2:1 OT
23.02.24	Ilves - SaiPa	5:2
28.12.23	SaiPa - Ilves	0:3
18.11.23	Ilves - SaiPa	5:2
14.10.23	SaiPa - Ilves	3:2 penalties

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