Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 17

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Dexcom Stadium (Galway)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Connacht		Edinburgh

	1	X	2
	1.46	21	2.7
	1.44	21	2.87
	1.52	23	2.7
	1.55	20.63	2.64	Watch
	1.5	23	2.62
	1.51	19	2.72
	1.52	23	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.42)	21.52 ↑ (20.75)	2.71 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
61.6%

Draw
4.3%

Edinburgh
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

4.5%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

80.8%

5.6%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Edinburgh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+19.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Connacht, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Edinburgh than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Edinburgh, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Connacht - Edinburgh Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buckley D.	1. Schoeman P.
2. Heffernan D.	2. Ashman E.
3. Bealham F.	3. Rae D.
4. Murphy J.	4. Sykes M.
5. Murray D.	5. Skinner S.
6. Prendergast C. (C)	6. Muncaster B.
7. Oliver C.	7. Watson H.
8. Jansen S.	8. Bradbury M. (C)
9. Murphy B.	9. Price A.
10. Hanrahan J.	10. Thompson R.
11. Treacy F.	11. Brown J.
12. Aki B.	12. Tuipulotu M.
13. Gavin H.	13. Currie M.
14. Bolton S.	14. Graham D.
15. Cordero S.	15. Goosen W.
Substitutes
16. Tierney-Martin D.	16. Harrison P.
17. Dooley P.	17. Venter B.
18. Aungier J.	18. Sebastian J.
19. Dowling O.	19. Young G.
20. Boyle P.	20. McConnell L.
21. Blade C.	21. Shiel C.
22. Forde C.	22. Healy B.
23. Hawkshaw D.	23. Lang J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 14)
7', Schoeman P. (Try),
8', Thompson R. (Conversion Goal),
26', Watson H. (Try),
27', Thompson R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 17)
41', Treacy F. (Try),
42', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
51', Treacy F. (Try),
52', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
57', Muncaster B. (Try),
58', Muncaster B. (Conversion Goal),
65', Bolton S. (Try),
66', Hanrahan J. (Conversion Goal),
72', Shiel C. (Try),
73', Healy B. (Conversion Goal),
79', Healy B. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 2.

Connacht is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Edinburgh has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Connacht may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Edinburgh has had a series of home games.

Connacht might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Connacht won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 360:428. (average 20:23.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Connacht won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 166:141. (average 20.8:17.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
26.04.25	Lions - Connacht	26:7 ✺
19.04.25	Stormers - Connacht	34:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.25	Connacht - Racing Métro	40:43 ✺
05.04.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	35:20 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Connacht - Munster	24:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Edinburgh Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.25	Edinburgh - Bath	24:39 ✺
United Rugby Championship
25.04.25	Zebre - Edinburgh	25:25 ✺
18.04.25	Edinburgh - Sharks	17:18 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.25	Edinburgh - Blue Bulls	34:28 ✺
04.04.25	Edinburgh - Lions	24:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
11.11.23	Edinburgh - Connacht	25:22
25.03.23	Connacht - Edinburgh	41:26
04.03.22	Edinburgh - Connacht	56:8
13.03.21	Connacht - Edinburgh	14:15
25.10.20	Edinburgh - Connacht	26:37
21.02.20	Edinburgh - Connacht	41:14
14.09.18	Edinburgh - Connacht	17:10

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