Match Info

WORLD: Super Rugby - Round 5

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Apollo Projects Stadium (Christchurch)

Referee: Murphy D. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	Sky Sport 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Crusaders		Western Force

	1	X	2
	1.02	51	15
	1.02	51	13
	1.04	45	12
	1.04	50	10	Watch
	1.03	34	11
	1.02	50	15	Watch
	1.04	45	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.03 ↓ (1.06)	46.57 ↑ (44.25)	12.57 ↑ (9.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-27)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crusaders
90.6%

Draw
2%

Western Force
7.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88%

2.1%

9.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crusaders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Western Force has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Crusaders - Western Force Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 47:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Williams T.	1. Pearce M.
2. Taylor C.	2. Paenga-Amosa B.
3. Newell F.	3. Robertson T.
4. Barrett S.	4. Williams J. (C)
5. Shalfoon A.	5. Swain D.
6. Kellow C.	6. Harris W.
7. Christie T.	7. Koteka K.
8. Lio-Willie C.	8. Prinsep R.
9. Preston K.	9. Fines-Leleiwasa I.
10. Kemara T.	10. Burey M.
11. Springer M.	11. Poolman G.
12. Havili D. (C)	12. Pasitoa R.
13. Ennor B.	13. Tomkinson S.
14. Reece S.	14. Potter H.
15. Jordan W.	15. Grealy M.
Substitutes
16. Moananu I.	16. Coxon R.
17. Bower G.	17. Dolly N.
18. Calder S.	18. Moli A.
19. Cahill T.	19. Carter S.
20. Blackadder E.	20. Thompson J.
21. Drummond M.	21. Robertson H.
22. O'Connor J.	22. Miln C.
23. Aumua L.	23. Palu D.
Coaches
. Penney R.	. Cron S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 18)
2', Burey M. (Penalty Goal),
13', Springer M. (Try),
15', Grealy M. (Try),
19', Springer M. (Try),
25', Swain D. ↓, Carter S. ↑,
25', Burey M. (Penalty Goal),
27', Reece S. (Try),
31', Carter S. ↓, Swain D. ↑,
33', Harris W. (Try),
33', Burey M. (Conversion Goal),
38', Reece S. (Try),
40', Poolman G. ↓, Palu D. ↑,
2nd Half (35 - 15)
43', Reece S. (Try),
43', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
45', Burey M. (Penalty Goal),
47', Shalfoon A. ↓, Cahill T. ↑,
52', Springer M. (Try),
53', O'Connor J. (Conversion Goal),
55', Springer M. (Try),
56', O'Connor J. (Conversion Goal),
59', Springer M. (Try),
60', O'Connor J. (Conversion Goal),
68', Williams J. (Try),
72', Jordan W. (Try),
73', O'Connor J. (Conversion Goal),
79', Potter H. (Try),
80', Miln C. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crusaders won 4.

Crusaders could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Crusaders is indisputable favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Crusaders won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 254:145 (average 28.2:16.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Crusaders won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 152:58 (average 30.4:11.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crusaders Rugby
Super Rugby
08.03.25	Crusaders - Reds	43:19 ✺
21.02.25	Chiefs - Crusaders	49:24 ✺
14.02.25	Crusaders - Hurricanes	33:25 ✺
31.05.24	Crusaders - Moana Pasifika	43:10 ✺
25.05.24	Crusaders - Blues	29:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWWW
- Western Force Rugby
Super Rugby
08.03.25	Waratahs - Western Force	34:10 ✺
01.03.25	Western Force - Reds	24:28 ✺
22.02.25	Brumbies - Western Force	42:45 ✺
15.02.25	Western Force - Moana Pasifika	45:44 ✺
01.06.24	Western Force - Brumbies	19:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
20.04.24	Western Force - Crusaders	37:15
06.05.23	Crusaders - Western Force	48:13
07.05.22	Western Force - Crusaders	15:53
04.06.21	Crusaders - Western Force	29:21
24.03.17	Crusaders - Western Force	45:17
08.04.16	Western Force - Crusaders	19:20
30.05.14	Crusaders - Western Force	30:7

Crusaders - Western Force: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide