Match Info

EUROPE: European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	CT sport Plus
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV7
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
World	FloSports app


	Leinster		Bath

	1	X	2
	1.1	34	7
	1.11	34	6.5
	1.13	30	6.1
	1.13	33.85	6.5	Watch
	1.1	34	7
	1.11	34	7
	1.13	30	6.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↑ (1.09)	32.84 ↓ (34.94)	6.6 ↓ (7.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
83.1%

Draw
2.8%

Bath
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.4%

2.7%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Bath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Leinster - Bath Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Porter A.	1. Obano B.
2. Kelleher R.	2. Annett N.
3. Slimani R.	3. Stuart W.
4. McCarthy J.	4. Roux Q.
5. Ryan J.	5. Molony R.
6. Deegan M.	6. Hill T.
7. van der Flier J.	7. Reid M.
8. Conan J.	8. Barbeary A.
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. Spencer B.
10. Prendergast S.	10. Russell F.
11. Osborne J.	11. McConnochie R.
12. Barrett J.	12. Ojomoh M.
13. Henshaw R.	13. Lawrence O.
14. Ringrose G.	14. Cokanasiga J.
15. Keenan H.	15. de Glanville T.
Substitutes
16. Healy C.	16. Dunn T.
17. Clarkson T.	17. van Wyk F.
18. Snyman R.	18. du Toit T.
19. McCarthy G.	19. Ewels C.
20. Sweetman-Doris C.	20. Bayliss J.
21. McGrath L.	21. Schreuder L.
22. Byrne R.	22. Bailey O.
23. O'Brien J.	23. Coetzee J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 21)
2', Barbeary A. (Try),
3', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
7', de Glanville T. (Try),
8', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
10', Henshaw R. (Try),
16', Henshaw R. (Try),
16', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
35', Obano B. 🟨,
37', Conan J. (Try),
38', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
40', de Glanville T. (Try),
40+1', Russell F. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 0)
52', Snyman R. (Try),
53', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
60', Obano B. 🟥,
61', Ringrose G. (Try),
62', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
68', Gibson-Park J. (Try),
69', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
77', Snyman R. (Try),
77', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leinster won 5.

Leinster in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Bath is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Leinster could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Leinster is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Leinster won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 227:97 (average 32.4:13.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Leinster won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 130:61 (average 32.5:15.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.01.25	La Rochelle - Leinster	14:16 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.12.24	Munster - Leinster	7:28 ✺
21.12.24	Leinster - Connacht	20:12 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.24	Leinster - Clermont	15:7 ✺
08.12.24	Bristol Rugby - Leinster	12:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW
- Bath Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.01.25	Bath - Clermont	40:21 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
05.01.25	Northampton Saints - Bath	35:34 ✺
28.12.24	Bath - Saracens	68:10 ✺
21.12.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	15:40 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
15.12.24	Benetton Treviso - Bath	22:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
22.01.22	Bath - Leinster	7:64
11.12.21	Leinster - Bath	45:20
15.12.18	Leinster - Bath	42:15
08.12.18	Bath - Leinster	10:17
16.01.16	Leinster - Bath	25:11
21.11.15	Bath - Leinster	19:16
04.04.15	Leinster - Bath	18:15

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