Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: GGL Stadium (Montpellier)


	Montpellier		Lions

	1	X	2
	1.29	34	3.75
	1.3	34	3.2
	1.32	23	3.55
	1.32	24.91	3.66
	1.3	26	3.5
	1.31	20	3.76
	1.32	23	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↑ (1.16)	26.42 ↓ (27.95)	3.57 ↓ (5.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
70.6%

Draw
3.5%

Lions
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.4%

3.3%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Montpellier's form might have worsened.

Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lions's recent form is better than expected.

Montpellier - Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Forletta E.	1. Schoeman J.
2. Akrab L.	2. Visagie J.
3. Japaridze L.	3. Ntlabakanye A.
4. Soucouna Y.	4. Oosthuizen E.
5. Tauleigne M.	5. Delport R.
6. Martins N.	6. Steenkamp W.
7. Nouchi L. (C)	7. Esterhuizen I.
8. Simmonds S.	8. Horn F.
9. Bernadet A.	9. Steyn N.
10. Vincent T.	10. Francis S.
11. Bridge G.	11. van der Merwe E.
12. Cadot A.	12. Louw M. (C)
13. Darmon T.	13. Cronje E.
14. Tambwe M.	14. Mpeku K.
15. Bouthier A.	15. Horn Q.
Substitutes
16. Karkadze V.	16. Botha P.
17. Erdocio B.	17. Naude M.
18. Haouas M.	18. van Vuuren C.
19. Camara Y.	19. Landsberg D.
20. Veyrier J.	20. Straeuli R.
21. Barreau A.	21. Pretorius J.
22. Vincent A.	22. Nohamba S.
23. Lucas P.	23. Jonker R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 0)
3', Tauleigne M. (Try),
4', Vincent T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 5)
47', Horn Q. (Try),
48', Oosthuizen E. 🟨,
54', Bernadet A. (Try),
56', Vincent T. (Conversion Goal),
61', Bernadet A. (Try),
62', Vincent T. (Conversion Goal),
72', Simmonds S. (Try),
73', Vincent T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Montpellier in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Montpellier could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Montpellier is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13:3

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
04.01.25	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	42:10 ✺
28.12.24	Clermont - Montpellier	18:22 ✺
21.12.24	Montpellier - Racing Métro	21:17 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Montpellier - Ospreys	59:15 ✺
06.12.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Montpellier	14:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWWWW
- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
21.12.24	Stormers - Lions	29:10 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Lions - Section Paloise	43:35 ✺
08.12.24	Ospreys - Lions	30:14 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.11.24	Munster - Lions	17:10 ✺
26.10.24	Leinster - Lions	24:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
13.01.24	Montpellier - Lions	13:3

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