Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2025, Friday

Location: Kingston Park (Newcastle)


	Newcastle Red Bulls		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	5.5	34	1.14
	5	34	1.14
	5.5	29	1.15
	5.95	31.61	1.15
	5	29	1.17
	6.5	26	1.12
	5.5	29	1.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.56 ↑ (4.88)	30.37 ↑ (30)	1.15 ↓ (1.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Red Bulls
16.6%

Draw
3%

Montpellier
80.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

78.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Newcastle Red Bulls - Montpellier Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rewcastle M.	1. Erdocio B.
2. Byrne B.	2. Tolofua C.
3. McCallum M.	3. Haouas M.
4. van der Walt P. (C)	4. Soucouna Y.
5. Hawkins J.	5. Tauleigne M.
6. Parsons R.	6. Delemarle R.
7. Leatherbarrow O.	7. Becognee A.
8. Lockwood F.	8. Simmonds S. (C)
9. Elliott J.	9. Bernadet A.
10. Wilkinson K.	10. Miotti H.
11. Pepper M.	11. Ngandebe G.
12. Spencer O.	12. Serfontein J.
13. Hearle A.	13. Darmon T.
14. Redshaw B.	14. Lucas P.
15. Brown L.	15. Tisseron J.
Substitutes
16. Blamire J.	16. Akrab L.
17. Hancock C.	17. Abuladze N.
18. Hancock C.	18. Hounkpatin W.
19. McDonald K.	19. Verhaeghe F.
20. Chick C.	20. Martins N.
21. Davis J.	21. Barreau A.
22. Connon B.	22. Cadot A.
23. Clark M.	23. Bouthier A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
2', Bernadet A. (Try),
3', Darmon T. (Conversion Goal),
33', Hearle A. (Try),
34', Wilkinson K. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 19)
47', Serfontein J. (Try),
48', Barreau A. (Conversion Goal),
60', Akrab L. (Try),
66', Martins N. (Try),
66', Barreau A. (Conversion Goal),
70', Akrab L. 🟨,

Preview

Newcastle Falcons has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Montpellier is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Montpellier have a series of home games.

In this match Montpellier is absolute favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Newcastle Falcons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 50:89 (average 16.7:29.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Newcastle Falcons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 42:44 (average 21:22).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Red Bulls
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.25	Ospreys - Newcastle Red Bulls	35:15 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	14:38 ✺
28.12.24	Northampton Saints - Newcastle Red Bulls	61:0 ✺
21.12.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	15:40 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
15.12.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons	14:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Montpellier Hérault RC
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.25	Montpellier - Lions	28:5 ✺
French Top 14
04.01.25	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	42:10 ✺
28.12.24	Clermont - Montpellier	18:22 ✺
21.12.24	Montpellier - Racing Métro	21:17 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Montpellier - Ospreys	59:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
10.12.23	Newcastle Red Bulls - Montpellier	19:24
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.01.19	Montpellier - Newcastle Red Bulls	45:8
21.10.18	Newcastle Red Bulls - Montpellier	23:20

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