Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade du Hameau (Pau)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 3


	Section Paloise		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.36	23	3.2
	1.4	26	3
	1.31	25	3.55
	1.27	40	3.95	Watch
	1.33	26	3.25
	1.3	21	3.77
	1.31	25	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.35)	26.57 ↑ (25.03)	3.47 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Section Paloise
69.8%

Draw
3.5%

Ospreys
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

3.7%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

3.6%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Section Paloise - Ospreys Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calles I.	1. Thomas S.
2. Ruffenach R.	2. Lloyd L.
3. Papidze G.	3. Botha T.
4. Tagitagivalu L.	4. Spencer W.
5. Picquette R.	5. Fender J.
6. Kpoku J.	6. Ratti J.
7. Hamonou T.	7. Morgan J. (C)
8. Whitelock L.	8. Morse M.
9. Souverbie T.	9. Hardy K.
10. Desperes A.	10. Edwards D.
11. Arfeuil G.	11. Conbeer R.
12. Brau-Boirie F.	12. Williams O.
13. Roudil E. (C)	13. Boshoff E.
14. Attissogbe T.	14. Kasende D.
15. Mondinat C.	15. Hopkins I.
Substitutes
16. Delhommel Y.	16. Lewis E.
17. Biziwu D.	17. Phillips G.
18. Williams H.	18. Warren B.
19. Liufau B.	19. Jones L.
20. Jooste D.	20. Davies T.
21. Grandidier A.	21. Davies L.
22. Robson D.	22. Florence T.
23. Gailleton E.	23. Walsh J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 7)
8', Attissogbe T. (Try),
9', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
15', Conbeer R. (Try),
16', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
38', Brau-Boirie F. (Try),
39', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Edwards D. (Missed Drop Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 24)
45', Boshoff E. (Try),
46', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
55', Morgan J. (Try),
65', (Penalty Try),
69', Roudil E. (Try),
70', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
74', Edwards D. (Try),
76', Davies L. (Try),
77', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Recent matches Section Paloise is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ospreys is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ospreys could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Section Paloise have a series of guest games.

In this match Section Paloise is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Section Paloise to win the game is with odds 1.32.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Section Paloise won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 26:48 (average 13:24).

Including matches at home between the teams Section Paloise won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 26:21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Section Paloise
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.01.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Section Paloise	15:24 ✺
French Top 14
04.01.25	Castres - Section Paloise	24:19 ✺
28.12.24	Section Paloise - Vannes	48:24 ✺
21.12.24	Toulon - Section Paloise	56:25 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Lions - Section Paloise	43:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWLL
- Ospreys Premiership Select
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.25	Ospreys - Newcastle Red Bulls	35:15 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	13:13 ✺
21.12.24	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	23:22 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Montpellier - Ospreys	59:15 ✺
08.12.24	Ospreys - Lions	30:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
19.01.19	Section Paloise - Ospreys	26:21
13.10.18	Ospreys - Section Paloise	27:0

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