Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 11

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC


	Ospreys		Newport Gwent Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.44	23	2.88
	1.4	23	3
	1.4	20.8	3.2	Watch
	1.5	21	2.75
	1.43	21	2.98
	1.42	21	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.47)	21.63 ↓ (22.2)	2.97 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
64.6%

Draw
4.3%

Newport Gwent Dragons
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

4.2%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

4.4%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Newport Gwent Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:22

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
2nd Half (12 - 6)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Dragons may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ospreys is a strong favorite.

We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 541:408. (average 27.1:20.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 302:188. (average 33.6:20.9).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Ospreys: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Dragons	3	1	1	1	88:83	8
10	Ospreys	3	1	0	2	81:107	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ospreys - Montpellier	26:31 ✺
11.01.26	Zebre - Ospreys	23:19 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLLWW
- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
23.01.26	Munster - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
16.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Newcastle Red Bulls	35:12 ✺
10.01.26	Benetton Treviso - Newport Gwent Dragons	74:21 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	28:5 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
25.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	19:19
26.04.25	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	57:24
21.09.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	23:21
18.05.24	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	26:13
18.11.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	20:5
25.03.23	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	37:18
23.10.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	32:25

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