Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 8

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Brasileirao Play, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, TV Record, UOL Play, Vivo Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	Fanatiz


	Água Santa		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	13	6.25	1.22	Watch
	12	6.25	1.23
	11	5.6	1.21	Watch
	12.82	6.17	1.21
	13.21	5.71	1.23	Watch
	13	5.5	1.2
	14	6.2	1.18	Watch
	11	5.6	1.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	12.5 ↑ (7.34)	5.91 ↑ (4.23)	1.21 ↓ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
7.4%

Draw
15.7%

Palmeiras
76.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.6%

21.9%

65.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.2%

21.2%

67.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Água Santa's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Água Santa - Palmeiras Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 6. Renan Castro 3. Robles Fuentes A. 4. Rafael Vaz 2. Ynaia 5. Wesley Dias 8. Ramon Vinicius 10. Mike 7. Davi Gomes 11. Gabriel Silva 9. Willen Mota	21. Weverton (G) 12. Mayke 34. Naves 26. Murilo 2. Marcos Rocha 5. Moreno A. 35. Fabinho 6. Vanderlan 40. Allan 18. Mauricio 42. Flaco Lopez
Substitutes
18. Ademilson 22. Arthur Korek 13. Diego Anjos 17. Diogo Batista 15. Fabio Sanches 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 14. Lucas Rocha 12. Matheus Novaes (G) 20. Robinho 25. Roger Fellipo 19. Ryan Santos 21. Villian Guilherme	43. Benedetti 16. Caio Paulista 41. Estevao 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 23. Raphael Veiga 27. Rios R. 10. Rony 39. Thalys 17. Torres F.
Coaches
Pintado	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Flaco Lopez ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 1 - 1, Willen Mota ⚽, Gabriel Silva (A),
58', Mayke ↓, Estevao ↑,
59', Fabinho ↓, Rios R. ↑,
68', Wesley Dias 🟨,
68', Rios R. 🟨,
69', Robles Fuentes A. 🟨,
70', Flaco Lopez 🟨,
70', Moreno A. ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
70', Allan ↓, Torres F. ↑,
70', Gabriel Silva ↓, Villian Guilherme ↑,
71', Davi Gomes 🟨,
80', Mike ↓, Diogo Batista ↑,
84', Mauricio ↓, Rony ↑,
86', Willen Mota ↓, Ademilson ↑,
86', Wesley Dias ↓, Fabio Sanches ↑,
90+5', Diogo Batista 🟨,
90+7', Ynaia 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Água Santa won 1.

Água Santa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Palmeiras is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Palmeiras is indisputable favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Água Santa won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:10 (average 1.2:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Água Santa won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:3 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
06.02.25	Guarani - Água Santa	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Água Santa - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
29.01.25	Botafogo SP - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Água Santa - Red Bull Bragantino	3:0 ✺
22.01.25	Corinthians - Água Santa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LLTWL
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
06.02.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:4 ✺
28.01.25	Palmeiras - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
25.01.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
22.01.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.04.23	Palmeiras - Água Santa	4:0
02.04.23	Água Santa - Palmeiras	2:1
12.02.23	Água Santa - Palmeiras	0:1
01.02.22	Palmeiras - Água Santa	1:0
26.07.20	Palmeiras - Água Santa	2:1
27.03.16	Água Santa - Palmeiras	4:1

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