Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Referee: Perez R. B. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		Comerciantes Unidos

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	3.8	Watch
	1.55	3.7	5
	1.9	3.45	3.85	Watch
	2.01	3.41	3.89
	1.91	3.4	4.05	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.75
	1.92	3.29	4.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.59)	3.38 ↓ (3.89)	4.06 ↓ (5.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
49.5%

Draw
27.6%

Comerciantes Unidos
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

24%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.2%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that ADT Tarma's form might have worsened.

Comerciantes Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Comerciantes Unidos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ADT Tarma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Comerciantes Unidos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

ADT Tarma - Comerciantes Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. ADT will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Solis C. (G) 14. Cabello C. 4. Biojo R. 28. Soto J. 6. Ojeda A. 10. Cedron V. (C) 15. Alvino J. 8. Guivin Tanta J. 21. Benites Vargas L. E. 32. Bauman J. 7. Rojas J.	17. Cordova M. (G) 16. F. Rojas 40. Alcedo F. 30. Guzman P. 6. Rodriguez J. 15. Cossio A. 11. Herrera J. 18. Rodriguez A. 4. Arias A. 25. Vilca R. 9. Sen M. (C)
Substitutes
17. Arakaki H. 19. Carnero A. 11. Cubas A. 26. Garcilazo J. 27. Hidalgo A. 37. Rengifo N. 2. Reyes J. 30. Valencia J. (G) 5. Vega J.	10. Carpio Ferro M. P. 99. Charun J. (G) 5. Correa Flores C. A. 19. Lino D. 20. Parodi J. 13. Perez Azambuya E. M. 28. Pinto O. 29. Saavedra C. 14. Salinas T.
Coaches
Ripacolli D.	Biaggio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Bauman J. ⚽, Cabello C. (A),
28', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
39', Ojeda A. 🟨,
45', Arias A. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 0, Guivin Tanta J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Herrera J. ↓, Saavedra C. ↑,
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Salinas T. ↑,
54', Guzman P. ↓, Pinto O. ↑,
60', F. Rojas ↓, Parodi J. ↑,
70', Vilca R. ↓, Perez Azambuya E. M. ↑,
74', Ojeda A. ↓, Hidalgo A. ↑,
75', Alcedo F. 🟨,
75', Bauman J. 🟨,
77', Rojas J. ↓, Arakaki H. ↑,
90', Cabello C. ↓, Cubas A. ↑,
90', Guivin Tanta J. ↓, Vega J. ↑,
90+5', Rodriguez J. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

ADT may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, ADT is the team to beat.

There will not play in ADT: Narvaez J. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in ADT: Rengifo H. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 0.8:0).

Including home matches between the teams, ADT won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	18:19	-1	10
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
09.05.26	Moquegua - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	ADT Tarma - Los Chankas	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
14.04.26	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWWTL
- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.26	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Juan Pablo II College - Comerciantes Unidos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
23.11.25	Comerciantes Unidos - ADT Tarma	0:0
11.07.25	ADT Tarma - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0
28.10.24	Comerciantes Unidos - ADT Tarma	0:0
19.05.24	ADT Tarma - Comerciantes Unidos	2:0

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