Match Info

WORLD: Club Friendly

Date: 12 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Brügglifeld (Aarau)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport News, Sky Sport Top event
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Zoom


	Aarau		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	4.1	4.2	1.61
	4.13	4.34	1.61
	4.25	4.49	1.65	Watch
	4.36	4.55	1.66	Watch
	4.1	4.2	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↑ (3.06)	4.36 ↑ (4.1)	1.63 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aarau
22.1%

Draw
21.2%

Schalke 04
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

22.1%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

22.4%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aarau's form might have worsened.

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Schalke 04's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aarau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Schalke 04, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aarau - Schalke 04 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hirzel A. (G) 5. Acquah D. 29. Dickenmann M. 10. Fazliu V. 47. Fofana M. 23. Gjorgjev N. 15. Muller S. 27. Obexer L. 31. Odutayo C. 2. Thaler M. (C) 9. Toure Y.	1. Hoffmann R. (G) 23. Aydin M. 14. Bachmann J. 31. Bulut T. 30. Donkor A. 15. Hojlund E. 26. Kalas T. 11. Lasme B. 2. Sanchez F. 7. Seguin P. 27. Tempelmann L.
Substitutes
32. Bobadilla R. 4. Hasani B. 74. Hegner C. (G) 21. Jakob N. 22. Janko L. 17. Koide H. 42. Senyurt B. . Stankovic	17. Gantenbein A. 37. Gruger M. 35. Kaminski M. 34. Langer M. (G) 5. Murkin D. J. 4. Noode S. 6. Schallenberg R. 21. Wasinski M. 16. Zalazar Martinez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Fofana M. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Hojlund E. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Odutayo C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Seguin P. ↓, Schallenberg R. ↑,
46', Bulut T. ↓, Gruger M. ↑,
46', Kalas T. ↓, Wasinski M. ↑,
60', Donkor A. ↓, Zalazar Martinez M. ↑,
73', 2 - 2, Schallenberg R. ⚽,
76', Toure Y. ↓, Bobadilla R. ↑,

Preview

Aarau is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Schalke is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Schalke could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Schalke will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
05.10.24	Aarau - Vaduz	0:0 ✺
27.09.24	Stade Nyonnais - Aarau	1:2 ✺
23.09.24	Aarau - Schaffhausen	1:2 ✺
20.09.24	Vaduz - Aarau	2:5 ✺
Swiss Cup
15.09.24	Aarau - Luzern	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 TWLWW
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
05.10.24	Schalke 04 - Hertha Berlin	2:2 ✺
28.09.24	Preußen Münster - Schalke 04	1:2 ✺
20.09.24	Schalke 04 - Darmstadt	3:5 ✺
13.09.24	Karlsruher - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.24	Schalke 04 - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWLLW

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