The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ajaccio 38.8%
Draw 31.1%
Caen 30.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.6%
30.4%
37%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.5%
30.3%
37.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajaccio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajaccio's performance.
Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajaccio that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
70%
25%
5%
Ajaccio - Caen Predictions
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Caen will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Ajaccio: 47.5% – 89.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. Sollacaro F. (G) 5. Vidal C. 23. Strata T. 88. Bamba A. 43. Kouassi A. 10. Jacob V. 26. Jabol-Folcarelli T. 25. Anziani J. 4. Barreto M. 9. Ibayi C. 22. Soumano M.
1. Mandrea A. (G) 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 61. Traore B. 28. Lecoeuche Q. 25. Sy L. 17. Kyeremeh G. 10. Brahimi B. 20. Lebreton N. 14. Rajot L. 50. Najim I. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
31. Ayessa J. 21. Chegra I. 12. Huard M. 27. Kante A. 8. Puch-Herrantz M. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 99. Santelli B.
3. Bolumbu D. 16. Clementia Y. (G) 7. Gomis T. 8. Le Bihan M. 37. Milliner L. 29. Thomas R. 39. Tome G.
Coaches
Debes T.
Baltazar B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Rajot L. 🟨,
26', Jacob V. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
40', Anziani J. 🟨,
42', Bamba A. 🟨,
42', Traore B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Rajot L. ↓, Le Bihan M. ↑,
61', Ibayi C. ↓, Santelli B. ↑,
61', Soumano M. ↓, Chegra I. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Najim I. (A),
70', 1 - 1, Bamba A. ⚽,
72', Najim I. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
79', Kyeremeh G. ↓, Milliner L. ↑,
80', Barreto M. ↓, Puch-Herrantz M. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Kante A. ⚽,
87', Lecoeuche Q. ↓, Bolumbu D. ↑,
90+3', Santelli B. 🟨,
Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 16 in the zone Ligue 2 (Relegation)).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 1.
Two teams has got a chain of failures in the last matches.
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
There will not play in Ajaccio: Junior Pereira da Silva E.
(Red Card)
There will not play in Caen: M'Vila Y.
(Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Ajaccio: Campanini T.
(Injury)
Mangani T.
(Injury)
Toure B.
(Injury)
Touzghar Y.
(Injury)
Vidal C.
(Injury)
Youssouf M.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Caen: Traore B.
(Muscle Injury)
Last 12 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 7:14 (average 0.6:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1.2:1).
France
Watch
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Sollacaro F. (G) 
Strata T. 
Kouassi A. 
Ibayi C. 
Mandrea A. (G) 
Moucketou-Moussounda A. 
Brahimi B. 
Mendy A. 
Kante A. 
Clementia Y. (G) 
Baltazar B. 
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