Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 14 December 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV4
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Ajax		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.33	4.5
	1.7	4.1	4.5
	1.72	4.25	4.55	Watch
	1.73	4.2	4.68
	1.71	4.2	4.64
	1.67	4	4.4
	1.71	4.15	4.6
	1.7	4.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.98)	4.18 ↑ (3.79)	4.55 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
56.1%

Draw
22.9%

AEK Athens
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

25%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

25.9%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajax's performance.

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Athens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Athens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87%	3.7%	9.3%

Ajax - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (47 of 54 users predict this - 87.04%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.08% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ramaj D. (G) 2. Rensch D. 37. Sutalo J. 4. Hato J. (C) 25. Sosa B. 33. Tahirovic B. 38. Hlynsson K. 8. Taylor K. 10. Akpom Ch. 9. Brobbey B. 11. Forbs C.	30. Athanasiadis G. (G) 12. Rota L. 21. Vida D. 2. Moukoudi H. 28. Hajsafi E. 19. Eliasson N. 4. Szymanski D. (C) 20. Mantalos P. 5. Amrabat N. 7. Garcia L. 10. Zuber S.
Substitutes
30. Avila G. 49. Banel J. 53. de Graaff T. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 47. Gooijer T. 42. Martha A. 18. Medic J. 19. Mikautadze G. 1. Rulli G. (G) 17. Salah-Eddine A.	25. Galanopoulos K. 6. Jonsson J. 24. Mitoglou G. 3. Mohammadi M. 70. Pizarro R. 29. Sidibe D. 99. Theocharis G. (G)
Coaches
van 't Schip J.	Almeyda M.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently AEK have a series of home games.

In this match Ajax is a favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Red Card) Godts M. (Hip Injury) Gorter J. (Injury) Mannsverk S. (Leg Injury) Pasveer R. (Knee Injury) van den Boomen B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AEK: Fernandes P. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Gacinovic M. (Red Card) Garcia L. (Injury) Jonsson J. (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ajax won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Ajax won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
09.12.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1 ✺
06.12.23	Waalwijk - Ajax	2:3 ✺
03.12.23	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.11.23	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.11.23	Ajax - Vitesse	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWLW
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
04.12.23	AEK Athens - Aris	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.11.23	AEK Athens - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:1 ✺
Greek Super League
26.11.23	PAS Giannina - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
12.11.23	AEK Athens - Lamia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.11.23	AEK Athens - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
05.10.23	AEK Athens - Ajax	1:1
UEFA Champions League
27.11.18	AEK Athens - Ajax	0:2
19.09.18	Ajax - AEK Athens	3:0

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