Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 27

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Croatia	SportKlub 8
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
Indonesia	Kompas TV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	Arena sport 1, Sport TV2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2, SupeSport ESPN
Spain	GolStadium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Ajax		Sparta Rotterdam

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.33	4.2	Watch
	1.72	4.15	4.25
	1.73	4.25	4.59
	1.73	4.24	4.19	Watch
	1.67	4	4
	1.71	4.44	4.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.61)	4.24 ↑ (4.1)	4.29 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
55.5%

Draw
22.4%

Sparta Rotterdam
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

22.7%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

21.7%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	11.8%	52.9%

Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sparta Rotterdam: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ajax (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sparta Rotterdam will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Sparta Rotterdam (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Paes M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 32. Tomiyasu T. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 48. Steur S. 23. Berghuis S. 19. Konadu D. 11. Godts M.	1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Martes L. 3. Young M. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Quintero T. 6. Clement P. 8. Kitolano J. 7. van Bergen M. 10. van Crooij V. 11. Mito S. 9. Lauritsen T.
Substitutes
43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 24. Mokio J. 52. Reverson P. (G) 53. van der Lans M. 5. Wijndal O.	16. Baas J. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 13. de Guzman J. 15. Kleijn M. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 18. Roaldsoy A. 12. Sambo S. 22. Santos A. 17. Terho C. 21. Toornstra J. 14. van Aanholt P. 19. Zonneveld M.
Coaches
Garcia O.	Steijn M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Kitolano J. (Own goal),
25', Regeer Y. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
32', 2 - 0, Berghuis S. ⚽, Steur S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Martes L. ↓, Sambo S. ↑,
46', van Bergen M. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
54', Sambo S. 🟨,
69', Tomiyasu T. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
69', Konadu D. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
70', van Crooij V. ↓, Zonneveld M. ↑,
70', Clement P. ↓, Terho C. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Klaassen D. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
74', Martins Indi B. 🟨,
76', 4 - 0, Godts M. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
81', Berghuis S. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
81', Steur S. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2.

Ajax has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sparta Rotterdam is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Ajax is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K. (Back Injury) Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Weghorst W. (Yellow Cards) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: Martes L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Ibrahimovic M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sparta Rotterdam: Kleijn M. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 40:15. (average 2.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 2.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Ajax - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.87%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.26	Groningen - Ajax	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Ajax - Fortuna Sittard	4:1 ✺
08.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTWT
- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
08.03.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Heerenveen - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
17.02.26	Sparta Rotterdam - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fortuna Sittard - Sparta Rotterdam	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
04.10.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	3:3
27.04.25	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
22.12.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	0:2
17.03.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	2:2
09.12.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1
19.02.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0
21.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	0:1

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