Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 11

Date: 3 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Campo Municipal de Urritxe (Amorebieta-Etxano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Amorebieta		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2.1
	3.4	2.9	2.1
	3.5	3.05	2.14
	3.26	3.11	2.22
	3.27	3.08	2.19	Watch
	3.4	2.96	2.22
	3.5	3.05	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↓ (6.47)	3.02 ↓ (3.67)	2.16 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
27.1%

Draw
30.4%

Leonesa
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.2%

25%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.1%

24.8%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Amorebieta's performance.

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leonesa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Amorebieta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leonesa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Amorebieta - Leonesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Campos G. (G) 2. Carbonell A. 5. Amelibia J. 22. Yuste A. 4. Kortazar M. 20. Coto E. 10. Berto 3. Camacho S. 14. Ben Hamed N. 11. Hervias P. 7. Selma D.	1. Banuz M. (G) 2. Garcia V. 5. Fornos Q. 15. Ruiz V. 17. Martinez A. 21. Artola J. 16. Maestre S. 8. Barri 10. Chacon L. 9. Justo M. 19. Escobar A.
Substitutes
15. Aurtenetxe J. 35. Benito U. 19. Bravo Fernandez M. 23. Calavera J. 18. Coulibaly A. 21. Marin A. 17. Munoz I. 30. Pedrosa Moran Y. (G) 28. Yaniz P.	20. Alba T. 14. Bicho 31. Martinez I. 12. Ortega G. 6. Presa K. 4. Rodri Suarez 28. Ruiz A. 26. Ruiz J. (G) 11. Samanes S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Yuste A. 🟨,
24', Maestre S. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Hervias P. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Kortazar M. 🟨,
53', Maestre S. ↓, Presa K. ↑,
59', Berto 🟨,
62', Selma D. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
62', Hervias P. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
66', Berto ↓, Bravo Fernandez M. ↑,
71', Chacon L. ↓, Bicho ↑,
71', Escobar A. ↓, Martinez I. ↑,
77', Barri 🟨,
78', Ben Hamed N. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
81', Ruiz V. ↓, Rodri Suarez ↑,
81', Artola J. ↓, Alba T. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

Amorebieta has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Leonesa in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Leonesa will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Amorebieta won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Amorebieta won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Copa del Rey
31.10.24	Barbastro - Amorebieta	4:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.10.24	Tarazona - Amorebieta	3:0 ✺
19.10.24	Amorebieta - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:3 ✺
13.10.24	Celta de Vigo B - Amorebieta	3:1 ✺
04.10.24	Amorebieta - Athletic Bilbao B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish Copa del Rey
31.10.24	Llanera - Leonesa	0:2 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.10.24	Leonesa - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
19.10.24	FC Andorra - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
12.10.24	Leonesa - Ourense CF	3:0 ✺
05.10.24	Leonesa - Tarazona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
15.01.20	Amorebieta - Leonesa	1:3
24.08.19	Leonesa - Amorebieta	1:1

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