Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
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Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
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Hungary	RTL+
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Israel	Sport 4
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Japan	Wowow Live
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Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
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Sweden	Disney+
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Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
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Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab
World	VIX App


	Aston Villa		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.75
	1.66	3.9	5
	1.78	3.75	4.75
	1.76	3.85	5.05
	1.72	3.86	4.85	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.6
	1.78	3.97	4.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.53)	3.83 ↓ (4.31)	4.86 ↓ (6.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
55.3%

Draw
25%

Lille
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.1%

22.1%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

24.4%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aston Villa's form might have worsened.

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aston Villa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.5%	17.1%	2.4%

Aston Villa - Lille Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Lille (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (33 of 40 users predict this - 82.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.72% – 94.28%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 60%). Lille (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 3. Lindelof V. 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 19. Sancho J. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 18. Abraham T.	1. Ozer B. (G) 3. Ngoy N. 18. Mbemba Ch. 4. Alexsandro 12. Meunier T. 32. Bouaddi A. 6. Bentaleb N. 15. Perraud R. 17. Mukau N. 9. Giroud O. (C) 27. Correia F.
Substitutes
31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 10. Buendia E. 2. Cash M. 12. Digne L. 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 11. Watkins O. 64. Wright J. (G)	39. Baret L. 16. Bodart A. (G) 42. Boussadia S. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 10. Haraldsson H. 60. Lanssade Z. (G) 23. Mandi A. 22. Santos T. 24. Verdonk C.
Coaches
Emery U.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Correia F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 0, McGinn J. ⚽, Sancho J. (A),
56', Abraham T. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
66', Correia F. ↓, Haraldsson H. ↑,
66', Bouaddi A. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
66', Mukau N. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
72', Douglas Luiz 🟨,
73', Alexsandro ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
74', McGinn J. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
74', Bogarde L. ↓, Cash M. ↑,
81', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
84', Sancho J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
84', Rogers M. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
86', 2 - 0, Bailey L. ⚽, Watkins O. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

Aston Villa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lille is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aston Villa is the team to beat.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Inactive) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Perrin G. (Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Andre B. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Aston Villa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
15.03.26	Manchester United - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Lille - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLT
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
15.03.26	Rennes - Lille	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Lille - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	0:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Lille - Aston Villa	0:1
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Lille - Aston Villa	2:2 penalties
11.04.24	Aston Villa - Lille	2:1

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