Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 25

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, Showmax, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 1, SuperSport Variety 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, TOD
Australia	Optus Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	fubo Sports Network 5 DRM
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 3
Iceland	Siminn Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Jiocinema, JioTV app, Star Sports Select 2
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	U-NEXT
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 5, Sky Sport NOW
Nigeria	SuperSport OTT 3
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 3
Poland	Viaplay
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	Hub Premier 3, StarHub TV+
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport OTT 3
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN 3, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Thailand	True Premier Football 4
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Usa	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Aston Villa		Ipswich Town

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	6.5
	1.45	4.95	7.2	Watch
	1.44	5.09	7.23
	1.45	5.01	6.84	Watch
	1.4	4.8	6.5
	1.45	5.14	7.13	Watch
	1.45	4.95	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.41)	4.96 ↑ (4.94)	6.94 ↓ (7.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
66.8%

Draw
19.4%

Ipswich Town
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

19.4%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

12.9%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Ipswich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-21.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aston Villa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ipswich Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.1%	9.2%	7.7%

Aston Villa - Ipswich Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (54 of 65 users predict this - 83.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.97% – 92.19%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 16. Garcia A. 3. Disasi A. 44. Kamara B. 12. Digne L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 8. Tielemans Y. 17. Malen D. 27. Rogers M. 41. Ramsey J. 11. Watkins O.	31. Palmer A. (G) 18. Johnson B. 40. Tuanzebe A. 26. O'Shea D. (C) 24. Greaves J. 22. Townsend C. 20. Hutchinson O. 8. Phillips K. 12. Cajuste J. 9. Enciso J. 19. Delap L.
Substitutes
21. Asensio M. 26. Bogarde L. 56. Jimoh-Aloba J. 22. Maatsen I. 5. Mings T. 25. Olsen R. (G) 9. Rashford M. 48. Zych O. (G)	33. Broadhead N. 47. Clarke J. 44. Godfrey B. 27. Hirst G. 25. Luongo M. 1. Muric A. (G) 29. Philogene J. 14. Taylor J. 6. Woolfenden L.
Coaches
Emery U.	McKenna K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Kamara B. ↓, Mings T. ↑,
17', Enciso J. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
28', Tuanzebe A. 🟨,
40', Tuanzebe A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Clarke J. ↓, Woolfenden L. ↑,
46', Ramsey J. ↓, Rashford M. ↑,
46', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
53', Greaves J. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Delap L. ⚽, Hutchinson O. (A),
63', Malen D. ↓, Asensio M. ↑,
68', Phillips K. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽,
80', Delap L. ↓, Hirst G. ↑,
80', Cajuste J. ↓, Luongo M. ↑,
90+5', Hutchinson O. 🟨,
90+5', Hutchinson O. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 3.

Recent matches Aston Villa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ipswich is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Aston Villa is certain favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Cash M. (Muscle Injury) Konsa E. (Muscle Injury) Torres P. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Ipswich: Burns W. (Knee Injury) Chaplin C. (Knee Injury) Ogbene C. (Calf Injury) Walton C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Calf Injury) Watkins O. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Ipswich: Szmodics S. (Ankle Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:6 (average 1.6:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Aston Villa won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:3 (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English FA Cup
09.02.25	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Aston Villa - Celtic	4:2 ✺
English Premier League
26.01.25	Aston Villa - West Ham United	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Monaco - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLWTL
- Ipswich Town
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Coventry City - Ipswich Town	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Liverpool - Ipswich Town	4:1 ✺
19.01.25	Ipswich Town - Manchester City	0:6 ✺
16.01.25	Ipswich Town - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
29.09.24	Ipswich Town - Aston Villa	2:2
English League Championship
26.01.19	Aston Villa - Ipswich Town	2:1
18.08.18	Ipswich Town - Aston Villa	1:1
21.04.18	Ipswich Town - Aston Villa	0:4
25.11.17	Aston Villa - Ipswich Town	2:0
11.02.17	Aston Villa - Ipswich Town	0:1
17.09.16	Ipswich Town - Aston Villa	0:0

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