Match Info

Premier League - Round 35

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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Denmark	Amazon Prime Video, Viaplay
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Vietnam	FPT Play


	Aston Villa		Tottenham Hotspur

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.3
	2.1	3.6	3.3
	2.15	3.7	3.3
	2.2	3.75	3.36
	2.15	3.83	3.28	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.25
	2.2	3.72	3.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.1)	3.67 ↓ (3.8)	3.32 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
44.9%

Draw
26.2%

Tottenham Hotspur
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

25.1%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

24.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Tottenham Hotspur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Tottenham Hotspur aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	23.8%	33.3%

Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 18 - 42.9%). Tottenham will win (votes: 14 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 27.9% – 57.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Aston Villa (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Tottenham (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Tottenham (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tottenham Hotspur will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tottenham (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 22. Maatsen I. 26. Bogarde L. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Sancho J. 6. Barkley R. 27. Rogers M. 18. Abraham T.	31. Kinsky A. (G) 23. Porro P. 4. Danso K. 37. van de Ven M. (C) 13. Udogie D. 30. Bentancur R. 6. Palhinha J. 39. Kolo Muani R. 22. Gallagher C. 11. Tel M. 9. Richarlison
Substitutes
31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 10. Buendia E. 12. Digne L. 21. Douglas Luiz 16. Garcia A. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 11. Watkins O.	40. Austin B. (G) 15. Bergvall L. 8. Bissouma Y. 3. Dragusin R. 14. Gray A. 10. Maddison J. 29. Sarr P. M. 38. Souza 24. Spence D.
Coaches
Emery U.	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Gallagher C. ⚽,
25', 0 - 2, Richarlison ⚽, Tel M. (A),
27', Kolo Muani R. 🟨,
45', Bentancur R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Barkley R. 🟨,
60', Abraham T. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
66', Bentancur R. ↓, Bissouma Y. ↑,
67', Kolo Muani R. ↓, Spence D. ↑,
73', Tel M. 🟨,
77', Rogers M. 🟨,
81', Danso K. 🟨,
85', Barkley R. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
85', Sancho J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
90+1', Richarlison ↓, Sarr P. M. ↑,
90+1', Tel M. ↓, Bergvall L. ↑,
90+6', Gallagher C. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Buendia E. ⚽, Cash M. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tottenham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Aston Villa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Onana A. (Injury)

There will not play in Tottenham: Davies B. (Ankle Injury) Kudus M. (Muscle Injury) Kulusevski D. (Knee Injury) Maddison J. (Knee Injury) Odobert W. (Knee Injury) Romero C. (Knee Injury) Simons X. (Knee Injury) Solanke D. (Injury) Vicario G. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Tottenham: Sarr P. M. (Shoulder Injury) Udogie D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:37. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 1:2.1).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Tottenham: 0.76% Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2:8	-6	2

Last Results with these Odds

Tottenham Hotspur - the odds 3.22 are the expected chance of winning is 29.57%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
25.04.26	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Aston Villa - Sunderland	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Aston Villa - Bologna	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWT
- Tottenham Hotspur
English Premier League
25.04.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Tottenham Hotspur	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Sunderland - Tottenham Hotspur	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2
English Premier League
19.10.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2
16.05.25	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0
English FA Cup
09.02.25	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	2:1
English Premier League
03.11.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	4:1
10.03.24	Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur	0:4
26.11.23	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2

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