Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Saggi R. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Red Bull Salzburg

	1	X	2
	1.29	6.25	8.5
	1.47	4.75	6
	1.28	6.5	9.6
	1.29	6.39	9.89
	1.3	6.01	8.77	Watch
	1.29	5.5	8.5
	1.32	6.42	8.73
	1.28	6	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.35)	5.98 ↑ (5.11)	8.69 ↓ (9.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
72.9%

Draw
16%

Red Bull Salzburg
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.2%

18.7%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

16.4%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aston Villa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	3.6%	17.9%

Aston Villa - Red Bull Salzburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 88.9%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Salzburg (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (44 of 56 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.82% – 89.32%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 29 - 87.9%). Salzburg (votes: 3 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 12. Digne L. 24. Onana A. 53. Hemmings G. 19. Sancho J. 9. Elliott H. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	1. Schlager A. (G) 37. Trummer T. 23. Gadou J. 44. Schuster J. 13. Kratzig F. 18. Bidstrup M. (C) 8. Kitano S. 5. Diabate S. 20. Baidoo E. 19. Konate K. 27. Alajbegovic K.
Substitutes
40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 4. Konsa E. 22. Maatsen I. 27. Rogers M. 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G) 51. Young K.	43. Aguilar E. 7. Bischoff C. 15. Diambou M. 92. Hamzic S. (G) 14. Kjaergaard M. 22. Lainer S. 25. Lukic O. 9. Onisiwo K. 2. Rasmussen J. 3. Terzic A. 49. Yeo M. K. 52. Zawieschitzky C. (G)
Coaches
Emery U.	Letsch T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Konate K. ⚽, Baidoo E. (A),
35', Gadou J. 🟨,
35', Watkins O. ↓, Rogers M. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Hemmings G. ↓, Cash M. ↑,
46', Konate K. ↓, Yeo M. K. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Yeo M. K. ⚽, Alajbegovic K. (A),
65', 1 - 2, Rogers M. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
66', Onana A. ↓, Konsa E. ↑,
66', Buendia E. ↓, Jimoh-Aloba J. ↑,
73', Alajbegovic K. ↓, Bischoff C. ↑,
73', Baidoo E. ↓, Onisiwo K. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Mings T. ⚽, Cash M. (A),
78', Sancho J. ↓, Young K. ↑,
87', 3 - 2, Jimoh-Aloba J. ⚽, Young K. (A),
89', Kitano S. ↓, Kjaergaard M. ↑,
89', Diabate S. ↓, Lukic O. ↑,

Preview

Aston Villa is Qualified for Europa League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Aston Villa is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Salzburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of away games.

Recently, Salzburg has had a series of home games.

In this match, Aston Villa is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Injury) Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) McGinn J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Salzburg: Chase A. (Inactive) Kawamura T. (Knee Injury) Lainer S. (Foot Injury) Mellberg J. (Knee Injury) Omoregie J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Salzburg: 1.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
25.01.26	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWLWT
- Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Basel	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.01.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
14.12.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Wolfsberger	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWL

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