Match Info

Date: 1 October 2020, Thursday


	Aston Villa		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.75	4.33	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.6
	1.8	3.75	4.35	Watch
	1.81	3.6	4.1
	1.9	3.64	4.27
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.87	3.84	4.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.71)	3.78 ↓ (3.87)	4.57 ↓ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
53.8%

Draw
25.3%

Stoke City
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24.6%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

14.4%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-21.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aston Villa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stoke City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.4%	8.3%	15.3%

Aston Villa - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 55 - 76.4%). Stoke will win (votes: 11 - 15.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 66.6% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

No spectators.

Aston Villa in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Stoke is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stoke could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Aston Villa is a favorite.

Stoke is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Last 11 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Aston Villa won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
28.09.20	Fulham - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.20	Bristol City - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.20	Aston Villa - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
15.09.20	Burton Albion - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
12.09.20	Aston Villa - Manchester United	1:0
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWWW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
26.09.20	Preston North End - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.20	Stoke City - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
English League Championship
20.09.20	Stoke City - Bristol City	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
17.09.20	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
12.09.20	Millwall - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
23.02.19	Stoke City - Aston Villa	1:1
15.12.18	Aston Villa - Stoke City	2:2
English Premier League
27.02.16	Stoke City - Aston Villa	2:1
03.10.15	Aston Villa - Stoke City	0:1
21.02.15	Aston Villa - Stoke City	1:2
16.08.14	Stoke City - Aston Villa	0:1
23.03.14	Aston Villa - Stoke City	1:4

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