Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 14 March 2024, Thursday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Scharer S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Finland	Viaplay
Italy	Sky Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV6, Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Atalanta		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.75	4.33
	1.83	3.75	4
	1.92	3.75	4	Watch
	1.81	3.8	4.48
	1.82	3.8	4.48
	1.8	3.9	4.2
	1.85	4.01	4.45
	1.81	3.85	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.13)	3.83 ↑ (3.7)	4.29 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
52.5%

Draw
25.1%

Sporting Lisbon
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

25%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atalanta's performance.

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Lisbon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atalanta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Lisbon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	14%	4.1%

Atalanta - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (99 of 121 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.95% – 88.69%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Musso J. (G) 19. Djimsiti B. 4. Hien I. 23. Kolasinac S. 3. Holm E. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 20. Bakker M. 59. Miranchuk Al. 90. Scamacca G. 11. Lookman A.	12. Israel F. (G) 3. St. Juste J. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. (C) 47. Esgaio R. 42. Hjulmand M. 8. Goncalves P. 2. Matheus Reis 10. Edwards M. 9. Gyokeres V. 17. Trincao
Substitutes
25. Adopo M. 29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 17. De Ketelaere C. 33. Hateboer H. 7. Koopmeiners T. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 22. Ruggeri M. 42. Scalvini G. 2. Toloi R. 10. Toure E. B. 77. Zappacosta D.	23. Braganca D. 21. Catamo G. 4. Coates S. 22. Fresneda I. 80. Koindredi K. 13. Neto 20. Paulinho 51. Pinto Diogo (G) 72. Quaresma E. 45. Rafael 11. Santos N. 99. Silva F. (G)
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Amorim R.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Atalanta is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sporting is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sporting could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Atalanta have a series of guest games.

Atalanta will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atalanta: Rossi F. (Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Adan A. (Thigh Injury) Morita H. (Illness)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Atalanta won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Atalanta won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
10.03.24	Juventus - Atalanta	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.03.24	Sporting Lisbon - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
03.03.24	Atalanta - Bologna	1:2 ✺
28.02.24	Inter Milan - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
25.02.24	Milan - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTLLT
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
10.03.24	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.03.24	Sporting Lisbon - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.03.24	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.02.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.02.24	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
06.03.24	Sporting Lisbon - Atalanta	1:1
30.11.23	Atalanta - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
05.10.23	Sporting Lisbon - Atalanta	1:2

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