Match Info

Date: 19 May 2021, Wednesday


	Athletico Paranaense		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	1.36	4	8.5	Watch
	1.35	4.4	7.75
	1.36	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.3	7.4
	1.37	4.76	8.69
	1.36	4.4	9	Watch
	1.37	4.4	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.39)	4.39 ↑ (4.28)	8.12 ↑ (7.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
67.7%

Draw
21%

FBC Melgar
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

21.5%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

12.1%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-30.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Athletico Paranaense - FBC Melgar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Melgar is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Melgar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Athletico PR is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
12.05.21	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.05.21	Metropolitanos - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
09.05.21	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	2:2 ✺
06.05.21	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.21	FBC Melgar - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWTWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
16.05.21	Carlos A. Mannucci - FBC Melgar	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.21	SD Aucas - FBC Melgar	2:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
08.05.21	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.21	FBC Melgar - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.21	Escuela Municipal Binacional - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.05.21	FBC Melgar - Athletico Paranaense	1:0

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