Match Info

MLS

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Q2 Stadium (Austin, TX)

Referee: Freemon J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
World	Apple TV International


	Austin FC		St. Louis City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.6
	2.68	3.45	2.58	Watch
	2.72	3.49	2.66
	2.68	3.5	2.54	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.5
	2.72	3.51	2.64	Watch
	2.21	3.45	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.21)	3.41 ↑ (3.38)	2.67 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austin FC
36.5%

Draw
27.9%

St. Louis City
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

27.4%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

27.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Austin FC's form might have worsened.

St. Louis City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

Austin FC - St. Louis City Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Austin will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). St. Louis City will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Austin (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Austin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stuver B. (G) 3. Desler M. 5. Svatok O. 4. Hines-Ike B. 29. Guilherme Biro 11. Torres F. 30. Rosales J. 6. Sanchez I. 7. Nelson J. 21. Ramirez C. 10. Uzuni M.	1. Burki R. (G) 5. MacNaughton L. 32. Baumgartl T. 21. Polvara D. 6. Wallem C. 8. Durkin C. 28. Perez M. 14. Totland T. 10. Lowen E. 17. Hartel M. 11. Becher S.
Substitutes
15. Bell J. 20. Dubersarsky N. 19. Fodrey C. 17. Gallagher J. 12. Las D. (G) 8. Pereira D. 14. Sabovic B. 9. Vazquez B. 33. Wolff O.	16. Cordova S. 27. Fall F. 59. Joyner M. 39. Lundt B. (G) 4. Mbacke M. 80. McSorley B. 99. Orozco J. 20. Rafael Santos 36. Teuchert C.
Coaches
Estevez N.	Damet Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Guilherme Biro 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Baumgartl T. 🟨,
59', Lowen E. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
59', MacNaughton L. ↓, Mbacke M. ↑,
66', Sanchez I. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
68', Durkin C. 🟨,
69', 1 - 0, Ramirez C. ⚽, Pereira D. (A),
73', Perez M. ↓, Joyner M. ↑,
73', Becher S. ↓, Fall F. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Uzuni M. ⚽, Ramirez C. (A),
82', Ramirez C. ↓, Wolff O. ↑,
82', Guilherme Biro ↓, Bell J. ↑,
87', Hines-Ike B. 🟨,
87', Durkin C. ↓, McSorley B. ↑,
89', Torres F. ↓, Fodrey C. ↑,
89', Uzuni M. ↓, Vazquez B. ↑,
90+5', McSorley B. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Austin won 1.

Austin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

St. Louis City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

St. Louis City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Austin: Pereira D. (Injury) Taylor R. (Knee Injury) Vazquez B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu (Knee Injury) Jeong S. (Injury) Orozco J. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Austin: Wolff O. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in St. Louis City: Glover C. (Injury) Wallem C. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Austin won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Austin won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.7:2.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Austin FC - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.91%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austin FC
MLS
25.04.26	Austin FC - Houston Dynamo	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Austin FC	5:1 ✺
18.04.26	Toronto FC - Austin FC	3:3 ✺
US Open Cup
14.04.26	Louisville City - Austin FC	2:1 ✺
MLS
11.04.26	Austin FC - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLTLL
- St. Louis City SC
US Open Cup
29.04.26	Chicago Fire - St. Louis City	1:2 ✺
MLS
25.04.26	St. Louis City - San Jose Earthquakes	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Seattle Sounders - St. Louis City	4:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	St. Louis City - Tulsa	4:0 ✺
MLS
11.04.26	FC Dallas - St. Louis City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
04.10.25	Austin FC - St. Louis City	1:3
30.03.25	St. Louis City - Austin FC	0:1
14.04.24	St. Louis City - Austin FC	1:0
09.03.24	Austin FC - St. Louis City	2:2
20.08.23	St. Louis City - Austin FC	6:3
25.02.23	Austin FC - St. Louis City	2:3

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