Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 27

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 4, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV7
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Auxerre		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.75	4.1	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.4
	1.85	3.7	4.15	Watch
	1.8	3.8	4.26
	1.83	3.81	4.16	Watch
	1.75	3.75	4.4
	1.83	3.88	4.42	Watch
	1.85	3.7	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.77)	3.77 ↓ (3.87)	4.26 ↓ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra En Español

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Current Win Probability

Auxerre
52.5%

Draw
25.2%

Montpellier
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

24.5%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

24.1%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.5%	2.3%	2.3%

Auxerre - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: Auxerre will win (127 of 133 users predict this - 95.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 91.96% – 99.02%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Leon D. (G) 23. Hoever K. 3. Osho G. 4. Jubal Junior (C) 92. Akpa C. 12. Oppegard F. 10. Perrin G. 42. Owusu E. 27. Danois K. 25. Traore H. J. 9. Bair T.	40. Lecomte B. (C) 77. Sacko F. 2. Meite A. 5. Sagnan M. 3. Sylla I. 11. Savanier T. 12. Ferri J. 13. Chotard J. 14. Maamma O. 18. Pays N. 70. Coulibaly T.
Substitutes
19. Aye F. 40. De Percin T. (G) 20. Diomande S. 18. Diousse A. 26. Joly P. 80. Massengo H. 14. Mensah G. 45. Onaiwu A. 17. Sinayoko L.	16. Bertaud D. (G) 9. Delort A. 22. Fayad K. 10. Khazri W. 21. Mincarelli L. 47. Mouanga Y. 41. Ndiaye J. 49. Ndollo Bille W. 19. Nzingoula R.
Coaches
Pelissier C.	Gasset J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Owusu E. 🟨,
35', Akpa C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bair T. ↓, Sinayoko L. ↑,
46', Owusu E. ↓, Massengo H. ↑,
47', Meite A. 🟨,
66', Maamma O. ↓, Delort A. ↑,
72', Chotard J. ↓, Nzingoula R. ↑,
72', Meite A. ↓, Mouanga Y. ↑,
72', Pays N. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
77', Akpa C. ↓, Aye F. ↑,
77', Oppegard F. ↓, Mensah G. ↑,
78', Massengo H. 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Aye F. ⚽, Hoever K. (A),
86', Ferri J. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
87', Hoever K. ↓, Joly P. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Recent matches Auxerre is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Montpellier is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Montpellier could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Auxerre is a favorite.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly L. (Knee Injury) Traore H. J. (Shoulder Injury) Zossou A. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Dzodic S. (Injury) Gueguin A. (Ribs Injury) Issoufou Y. (Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Kouyate K. (Yellow Cards) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Omeragic B. (Knee Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Yellow Cards) Tchato E. (Thigh Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Auxerre won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:8 (average 1.3:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Auxerre won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
14.03.25	Nice - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	Reims - Auxerre	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	Auxerre - Strasbourg	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
14.02.25	Brest - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 TWLWT
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
08.03.25	Lille - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Montpellier - Rennes	0:4 ✺
23.02.25	Nice - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
16.02.25	Montpellier - Lyon	1:4 ✺
09.02.25	Strasbourg - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
22.09.24	Montpellier - Auxerre	3:2
29.01.23	Auxerre - Montpellier	0:2
21.08.22	Montpellier - Auxerre	1:2
20.05.12	Auxerre - Montpellier	1:2

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